NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Against the Grain Bam Adebayo (February 14)

With this weekend’s All-Star game on the horizon, we’ve got a monster 12-game NBA slate on Wednesday that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Bam Adebayo and Cole Anthony. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, February 14

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Heat-76ers: Bam Adebayo

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 12.70%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500

With 12 games on tonight’s docket, there are multiple good plays across every price point. As value continues to emerge from what seems like every team on the slate, most lineups will take on a stars-and-scrubs like approach. While that’s a solid way to approach tonight’s slate, players like Bam Adebayo are falling through the cracks, as Miami’s center currently grades out as the third-highest leverage play on the board.

Adebayo is projected to be in just 8.30% of lineups on DraftKings, but his optimal percentage is 12.10%, making him one of the best differentiators on the slate.


NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Lakers-Jazz: Spencer Dinwiddie

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 6.60%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,300

Newly minted Laker Spencer Dinwiddie is the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,300. Dinwiddie played 31 minutes in his Lakers debut last night and although he didn’t do a ton in those minutes, there’s plenty of merit in getting to him tonight, especially with LeBron James out. Dinwiddie has been much more solid than spectacular for basically the entire season, but priced down to $5,300, he stands out as one of the best leverage plays on the slate. While it’s clear there is plenty of meat on the bone at his $5.3K price tag, the field isn’t getting to Dinwiddie at nearly the rate they should be.

Despite numerous signs pointing to value here, Dinwiddie is a forgotten man on DraftKings tonight and grades out as the fourth-best leverage play on the slate. He is projected to be in just 2.40% of lineups but has a 6.60% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his minutes uncertainty on a new team, his upside is massive at $5,300, and embracing that volatility is key in GPPs.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Knicks-Magic: Cole Anthony

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 15.50%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,700

Cole Anthony is the highest-graded leverage player in Stokastic’s tools and the obvious top contrarian play on DraftKings at $3,700. Anthony seems to have fallen down the pecking order of Orlando’s guards recently, but with Markelle Fultz out tonight, he should find himself firmly entrenched in the Magic’s backcourt. Although Orlando is not in an overall good spot for DFS purposes, Anthony has emerged as one of the top value plays on the slate at only $3,700. With so many other good value plays at other positions, however, Anthony isn’t getting the love he deserves.

His production and playing time has been a bit up and down of late, but Anthony is almost $2,000 less than his average price tag on DraftKings this season ($5,658), and it’s worth getting over the field on him in tournaments. The former University of North Carolina star currently projects to be optimal 15.50% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 7.70% of lineups projected to roster him, the field is overlooking Anthony, and he’s the top differentiator on the slate.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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