NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Against the Grain Jayson Tatum (March 25)

We’re back with a monster nine-game NBA slate on Monday that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, including Jayson Tatum and Marcus Sasser. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, March 25

NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Celtics-Hawks: Jayson Tatum

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 10.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000

Even with a whopping nine games on tonight’s docket, there are only four players priced above $10k on DraftKings. As such, there are limited spend up options to begin with, and most of them are projected to be either correctly or over owned. Jayson Tatum is one of the odd men out, however, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $10,000.

Coming into tonight’s action averaging 27.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.6 stocks per game, Tatum has been his typical self this season in leading the Celtics to the best record in the NBA. While he’s still waiting for that elusive first championship, Tatum has cemented himself as an undoubted top-10 player in the league. Despite his nightly dominance, however, the field is uninterested in building around Tatum on DraftKings and he’s falling through the cracks in a big way.

While he’s not getting completely left out of the mix, Tatum is projected to be in just 5.90% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 10.30%, it’s clear why the former Duke one-and-done looks so good from a leverage perspective.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pistons-Knicks: Marcus Sasser

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 22.50%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,700

Pistons rookie guard Marcus Sasser is the highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tool, and he’s the obvious top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $4,700. Sasser’s first season in Detroit has been filled with a ton of ups-and-downs, but he’s playing big minutes right now, and he stands out as arguably the top differentiator on the entire slate.

With the majority of ownership on this slate going to players from Brooklyn and New York, Sasser is mostly getting forgotten about on DraftKings. The former University of Houston star is projected to be in just 5.60% of lineups but has an 22.50% optimal percentage. Although these numbers are likely to change as we get news concerning Cade Cunningham, Sasser currently looks like one of the best tournament plays on the slate. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to tough matchup against the Knicks, Sasser has upside at $4,700, and embracing that volatility is key in GPPs.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Celtics-Hawks: Vit Krejci

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.60%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,200

We’re back to dumpster diving for contrarian value, and Atlanta’s Vit Krejci is the catch of the day at $4,200.

Krejci continues to play big minutes in the absence of Trae Young, and he grades out extremely well from a leverage standpoint. Coming into tonight averaging 12.3 DraftKings points per game, Krejci’s $4,200 price tag, makes him a valuable piece on a slate without a ton of viable spend down options. Despite numerous clear signs pointing to value here, Krejci isn’t getting any love on DraftKings.

Stokastic’s tools currently have Krejci optimal 8.60% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 2.10% of lineups projected to roster him, Krejci offers a ton of leverage with both point guard and shooting guard eligibility.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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