NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Against the Grain Kyle Kuzma (February 7)

We’re back to the madness on Wednesday, with a seven-game NBA slate tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Kyle Kuzma and Jaden Springer . One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, February 7

NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Kyle Kuzma: Cavaliers-Wizards

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 17.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,600

With pretty much every true spend up option on this slate either owned appropriately or over-owned, Kyle Kuzma is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at a reduced $7,600 price tag. Kuzma is a name to watch as Thursday’s trade deadline approaches, and there’s a lot to like about him in what could potentially be his last game as a Wizard. Despite his falling price tag, the field isn’t overly interested in prioritizing Kuzma in a tough matchup against the Cavs.

Kuzma is projected to be in just 9.10% of lineups on DraftKings but has a 17.30% optimal percentage. Averaging 38.5 DraftKings points per game, Edwards is appropriately priced for his median outcome but far too cheap for his ceiling. Even in a tough spot, Kuzma has slate-breaking upside at $7,600, and it’s clearly worth getting over the field on him in tournaments.

NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Ausar Thompson: Pistons-Kings

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 23.50%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,400

Ausar Thompson is the highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the obvious top contrarian mid-tier play at $4,400. While $4,400 is cheap for the mid-range, that’s how the cookie crumbles today with Jaden Springer locked in as the top contrarian value play at $3,500. Although Thompson has had his fair share of ups-and-downs during his rookie campaign, he’s playing big minutes right now and his role should be even more solidified tonight with Detroit trading Kevin Knox II to Utah.

While he’s not getting completely forgotten about on DraftKings, the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be. As of this writing, Thompson is projected to be in 13.70% of lineups. Compare that to his 23.50% optimal percentage and it makes sense why Thompson grades out as the best leverage play on the board. While he’s unlikely to put up a score that’s needed to win tournaments, Thompson’s price tag and positionality can go a long way towards roster construction.

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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Jaden Springer: Warriors-76ers

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 11.00%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,500

The aforementioned Jaden Springer is the third-highest-graded play in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s DraftKings’ top contrarian value play at $3,500. Since Joel Embiid went down with a knee injury against this same Warriors team on January 30, Springer has emerged as a key part of Philadelphia’s rotation. After barely playing for the first few months of the season, Springer has averaged 21.75 minutes played over the past four games. With Tyrese Maxey potentially joining Embiid’s on the Sixers sideline tonight, Springer could become one of the most popular plays on DraftKings at only $3,500. As of this writing, however, he’s going completely overlooked.

Although his minutes still come with a decent amount of uncertainty, Springer should again have a decent role tonight, especially with both Maxey and Danuel House questionable. Matched up with a Warriors defense that leaves a lot to be desired, it’s surprising the field isn’t targeting him more. While these numbers will change as we get more news closer to lock, Springer is currently projected to be only 4.20% owned on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 11.00%, the masses are clearly missing the boat on Springer and he’s worth getting over the field on in large-field GPP’s.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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