With the trade deadline finally in the rearview mirror, the NBA blesses us with a six-game NBA slate tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Trae Young and Keegan Murray. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, February 9
NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick
Trae Young: Hawks-76ers
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 14.20%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,300
It’s always fun to be able to roster Trae Young at low ownership, and he’s tonight’s top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,300. Despite the Hawks underperforming with a 22-29 record, Young has continued to be one of the most productive guards in the league. He is averaging 27.1 points and 10.9 assists per game, and there’s a lot to like about him in a sneaky good spot against the 76ers.
Despite Young’s nightly production, the field is finding it difficult to prioritize Young on a slate with so many good guard options. As of this writing, Young is only projected to be 8.40% owned on DraftKings but has an optimal percentage of 14.20%. Philadelphia’s defense has suffered significantly in the absence of Joel Embiid, and while Young is efficiently priced for his median outcome, he’s far too cheap for his ceiling.
NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick
Keegan Murray: Nuggets-Kings
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 17.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,300
Nuggets-Kings looks like the game of the night from a real-life perspective, but from a DFS standpoint it isn’t overly appealing. That doesn’t mean there aren’t spots to target, however, and Keegan Murray currently grades out as the second-best leverage play on the slate. Although his recent box scores leave a lot to be desired, Murray has massive upside at $5,300, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should be.
Murray is projected to be in only 9.90% of lineups but has a huge 17.30% optimal percentage. Although there is definitely some minutes uncertainty with Murray right now, he’s the cheapest he’s been in over a month and almost $1,000 less than his average salary on DraftKings this season. Given his recent play, it’s hard to click on Murray in single-entry or small-field GPP’s. That said, his ownership will probably be even lower in those contests, and it is worth getting over the field on him in tournaments of all sizes.
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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick
Bruno Fernando: Hawks-76ers
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,400
Bruno Fernando has been a regular in this article recently, and he’s once again the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,400. With Clint Capela sidelined, Fernando has taken over the Hawks backup center role, and while he isn’t playing big minutes, he’s extremely productive when he’s on the floor. In 26 combined minutes over the past two games, Fernando has put up a respectable 32.5 DraftKings points. While 16 or 17 fantasy points aren’t winning anyone tournaments tonight, Fernando has legit upside if he somehow falls into 20-plus minutes.
Despite projecting for only 16.36 fantasy points, Fernando is expected to be optimal 8.30% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. Plus, along with only 2.30% of lineups projected to roster him, he has a higher-than-normal floor for a $3,400 player, which helps with roster flexibility.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.
