NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Buy the Dip on SGA? (March 27)

With MLB on the horizon, we’ve got a massive 10-game NBA slate on Wednesday that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Draymond Green. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, March 27

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Rockets-Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 10.00%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,300

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is firmly cemented in the MVP conversation, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $10,300. Coming into this evening’s action averaging 52.7 DraftKings points per game, SGA has taken his game to new heights in leading the Thunder to a 50-21 record. Although he’s questionable tonight with a nagging quadricep injury, SGA has suited up in three straight games and hasn’t faced any limitations since getting hurt.

Despite his nightly dominance, the field is struggling to prioritize SGA on a slate with multiple other intriguing spend-up options. Although there’s opportunity cost in rostering SGA and bypassing one of the other studs, SGA’s upside, even in a tough spot against the Rockets, is as high as anyone else on the slate.

As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have SGA optimal 10.00% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 7.20% of lineups expected to roster him, it makes sense why SGA looks so good from a leverage perspective.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Warriors-Magic: Draymond Green

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,300

Draymond Green also grades out extremely well in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $6,300. Averaging a very Draymond-like 8.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game, Green has been more solid than spectacular this year as the Warriors have hovered towards the bottom of the standings in the Western Conference playoff race.

As of this writing, Green is the fourth-highest graded leverage play on Stokastic. Although his stats are underwhelming as a whole, Green still has massive upside on any given night, and his price tag is $500 less than it was just last week.

Green is projected to be in just 4.30% of lineups but has a solid 8.90% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to a tough matchup against the Magic and his propensity to pick up technical fouls, Green is way too cheap for his upside at $6,300.

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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Nets-Wizards: Jared Butler

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 13.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,300

Jared Butler is the second-highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. Although he’s failed to stick with an NBA franchise since leaving Baylor and entering the 2021 NBA Draft, Butler is playing big minutes right now for a Wizards team that continues to deal with a litany of injuries. While he’s usually just a fringe rotation piece when everyone is healthy, Butler has emerged as one of the top differentiators on tonight’s slate at a discounted $4,300 price tag. Despite obvious signs pointing to value here, the field isn’t getting to Butler at nearly the rate they should be.

Stokastic’s tools currently have Butler optimal 13.90% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 8.50% of lineups projected to roster him, Butler offers a ton of leverage without much opportunity cost.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the NBA DFS Strategy Show on YouTube, where Stokastic pros break down all of the key elements for today’s slate.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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