NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Fade Nikola Jokic at Your Own Risk (March 11)

We’re back with another six-game slate on Monday that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Nikola Jokic and Draymond Green. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, March 6

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Raptors-Nuggets: Nikola Jokic

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 18.10%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,600

Nikola Jokic is trailing only Luka Doncic in fantasy points per game, and he finds himself in a dream spot against a Toronto frontcourt that continues to get cooked by opposing big men.

Despite his nightly production, the field is backing away from Jokic with blowout concerns looming in a game the Nuggets are favored by 14.5 points.

While he’s not getting completely forgotten about, Jokic is projected to be in just 12.70% of lineups on DraftKings, yet his optimal percentage is a whopping 18.1%.



NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Warriors-Spurs: Draymond Green

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 12.20%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,800

Draymond Green is the third-highest-graded leverage play on tonight’s slate. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 29.8 DraftKings points per game, Green has been better in the latter portion of the season, and there’s a lot to like about him tonight as the Warriors look for revenge against the Spurs. The Warriors seemed to finally be putting things together after a successful 3-1 road trip, but after back-to-back home losses to the Bulls and Spurs, Golden State suddenly finds itself 10th in the Western Conference.

With every game vital to their playoff seeding at this point, expect the best Green and the Warriors have to offer against a San Antonio team that will have Victor Wembanyama back.

Despite numerous signs pointing to value here, Green is a forgotten man on DraftKings and grades out extremely well from a leverage perspective. He is projected to be in just 5.50% of lineups but has a 12.20% optimal percentage.

While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his lack of offense and propensity to pick up technical fouls, Green undoubtedly has massive upside and isn’t getting enough love at $6,800.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Hornets-Pistons: Marcus Sasser

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 18.40%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,400

Several Pistons are popping in Stokastic’s tools, and Marcus Sasser leads the way. Sasser has been up and down for a Pistons team that features Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey as high first-round draft picks. Although Sasser is clearly behind both Cunningham and Ivey in the pecking order of Detroit guards, he has been productive when he’s on the court, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should be on DraftKings.

Sasser is projected to be optimal 18.40% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 9.80% of lineups are projected to roster him. Plus, his $3,400 salary opens up a lot of options with high- and mid-salary plays.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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