NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Go Right Back to Giannis (February 13)

We’re back to the madness on Tuesday, with a six-game NBA slate tipping off at 7:30 p.m. EST. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jalen Suggs. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, February 13

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Heat-Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.40%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,700

As a wise man once said, ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’, and that mantra applies tonight with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Coming off a monster game last night in which he put up 76.5 fantasy points, Giannis is again falling through the cracks on DraftKings, and there’s a lot to like about him as a spend up to be contrarian in GPPs.

Giannis is projected to be in just 6.00% of lineups, but his optimal percentage is 8.40%, making him a great tournament differentiator once again.

NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Kings-Suns: Jusuf Nurkic

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,000

Jusuf Nurkic has been solid in his first season in Phoenix, averaging 33.8 DraftKings points per game. Although he rarely plays over 30 minutes, Nurkic is extremely productive when he’s on the court, and the field is sleeping on his upside in a really good matchup against the Kings. Much like Andre Drummond, who was the top contrarian mid-tier play last night, Nurkic is a volatile NBA DFS player, but his ceiling/ownership combination makes him one of the most intriguing players at any price point.

Despite numerous signs pointing to value here, Nurkic is a forgotten man on DraftKings tonight and grades out as the third-best leverage play on the slate. He is projected to be in just 3.30% of lineups but has an 8.30% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his minutes uncertainty, his upside is massive at $7,000, and embracing that volatility is key in GPPs.

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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Thunder-Magic: Jalen Suggs

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 18.10%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,600

Jalen Suggs is the highest-graded leverage player in Stokastic’s tools and the obvious top contrarian play on DraftKings at $4,600. Suggs has evolved into one of the best backcourt defenders in the league, and as a result he’s earned big minutes in a deep Orlando rotation. While no one on the Magic regularly plays 30-plus minutes other than Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Suggs is right behind those two in the pecking order, currently playing 26.8 minutes per game.

His production has been a bit up and down of late, but Suggs is almost $1,000 less than his average price tag on DraftKings this season ($5,583), and it’s worth getting over the field on him in tournaments. Suggs currently projects to be optimal 18.10% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 12.10% of lineups projected to roster him, the field is overlooking Suggs, and he’s the top differentiator on the slate.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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