NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Mavericks Getting Overlooked (February 5)

We’re back to the madness on Monday, with a six-game NBA slate tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, including Kyrie Irving and Bruno Fernando. The key to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, February 5

NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Kyrie Irving: Mavericks at 76ers

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 17.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500

Kyrie Irving is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $8,500. Irving has missed Dallas’ past six games and was officially listed as probable heading into Monday, but he said he was playing after taking part in this morning’s shootaround. Coming into tonight averaging 43.8 DraftKings points per game, Irving has been productive from a DFS perspective when on the court, and there’s a lot to like about him tonight in a sneaky good spot in Philadelphia against the 76ers.

Although Irving is priced appropriately for his median outcome, he carries a ton of upside at $8,500 against a 76ers defense that has been getting cooked by opposing shooting guards of late. Cam Thomas just dropped 54.25 DraftKings points against this Sixers team on Saturday, and without Joel Embiid, their defense seems to be seriously suffering. Despite his clear upside, the field isn’t overly interested in building around Irving tonight. As of this writing, he’s projected to be in just 11% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 17.6%, it makes sense why Irving grades out as one of the best leverage plays on the slate.

NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Derrick Jones Jr.: Mavericks at 76ers

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 7.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,400

Sticking with the Mavericks, Derrick Jones Jr. stands out as the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $4,400. While no one would argue that Jones Jr. isn’t more solid than spectacular, he plays big minutes for a Mavericks team that is still missing Dante Exum and Dereck Lively II. With plenty of other viable players priced between $4-5K, Jones Jr. is getting completely forgotten about, and he stands out as one of the best differentiators on the slate.

Despite projecting for only 21.03 fantasy points, Jones is currently projected to be optimal 7.4% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. The field isn’t getting to him at nearly this rate, however, as he’s only projected to be in 2.9% of lineups. While these numbers tend to change as more news comes in closer to lock, Jones Jr. is clearly worth getting over the field on in tournaments of all sizes, especially if NBA DFS gamers don’t wake up to the value he carries at this price point.

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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Bruno Fernando: Clippers at Hawks

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 18.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,000

Bruno Fernando is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools and is the clear top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,000. With Clint Capela sidelined for at least the next 7-to-10 days, Fernando should be Atlanta’s primary backup center. Priced at the flat $3,000, Fernando is too cheap for his current role, and there’s a lot to like about him as a low-owned punt play on DraftKings.

While presumed starting center Onyeka Okongwu is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate — and for good reason — Fernando is projected to be in just 9% of lineups on DraftKings. Compare that to his 18.2% optimal percentage, and it makes sense why Okongwu stands out as the top leverage play on the board. Although it’s highly unlikely that Okongwu puts up a score necessary for you to win a tournament, his price tag opens doors to roster construction that otherwise would be closed.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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