NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Underappreciated De’Aaron Fox (March 10)

We’re back with a seven-game NBA slate on Sunday that tips off at 6 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include De’Aaron Fox and Mikal Bridges. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Sunday, March 10

NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Rockets-Kings: De’Aaron Fox

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 11.40%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,200

With only seven games on tonight’s docket, there are only two players priced above $10,000 on DraftKings. As such, there are limited spend-up options to begin with, and most of them are projected to be either correctly or over-owned. De’Aaron Fox is the odd man out, however.

Coming into tonight’s action averaging 45.7 DraftKings points per game, Fox has steadily seen his play improve over the past month. Since the All-Star break, Fox is putting up a whopping 51.56 DraftKings points per game, and there’s a lot to like about him tonight matched up with Jalen Green and the Rockets. Despite his nightly production, the field isn’t getting to Fox at nearly the rate it should be.

While he’s not getting completely forgotten about, Fox is projected to be in just 7.60% of lineups on DraftKings yet has a strong optimal percentage of 11.40%.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Nets-Cavaliers: Mikal Bridges

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.40%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,400

Coming off a monster season last year in which Mikal Bridges showed signs of being a true No. 1 option on a contending team, his play has been much more up-and-down in his follow up campaign. Despite his inconsistencies, Bridges is too cheap for his current role on DraftKings, as he plays huge minutes every night.

With the majority of ownership on this slate going to players from Miami and Cleveland, Bridges is getting forgotten about in DFS. He is projected to be in just 2.90% of lineups but has an 8.40% optimal percentage.

His floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to tough matchup against the Cavaliers and his production fluctuation, but Bridges has real upside at $7,400.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Magic-Pacers: Jalen Smith

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 9.20%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,000

Jalen Smith has always been a per-minute fantasy darling, and he seems to have once again taken over the Pacers backup center spot from Isaiah Jackson. Although Smith is always a scary roster due to his injury history and lack of secure playing time, he stands out on DraftKings at a price tag that’s close to $500 lower than his average salary this season.

Stokastic’s tools currently have Smith optimal 9.20% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 4.10% of lineups projected to roster him, it makes sense why Smith looks so good from a leverage perspective.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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