NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Kevin Durant + Zach Collins! (March 7)

Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with an eight-game featured slate beginning at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Kevin Durant, Zach Collins and Domantas Sabonis, plus there are several pending injury situations. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, March 7

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Kevin Durant: Suns vs. Raptors

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 51.61 | FanDuel: 50.31
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 19.1% | FanDuel: 20.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $10,200

Devin Booker will be missing a third-consecutive game with an ankle injury and there are rumblings that it could be a full week before he is able to rejoin the Suns on the court.

For the season, Kevin Durant is averaging nearly 1.3 fantasy points per minute, with 1.2 when he is on the court with Booker and 1.4 when he is the primary scoring option without the dynamic guard.

In the three most recent games without Booker, Durant is averaging 38.3 minutes and 24 field goal attempts with a 47.4% conversion rate. This has resulted in 29.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 3.0 combined blocks and steals for 50 fantasy points. For additional perspective, this production is a tick lower than Durant’s per game averages across the 12 games Booker has missed, though most of those were in the first two months of the season.

Toronto has been hemorrhaging points to opposing teams since trading away OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes are also out, so this rotation has seen quite the makeover since October. The defense has slipped down the rankings and is in danger of falling into the bottom-five, which bodes well for the Suns, who are also double-digit home favorites.

Bradley Beal has averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute this season without Booker, getting a boost in both his assist rate and offensive opportunities. Jusuf Nurkic had a ridiculous 31 rebounds against the Thunder on Sunday and he is averaging 17.6 per game over the last five. He should easily post a double-double tonight against the short-handed Toronto frontcourt, which is down to Kelly Olynyk. The NBA nomad actually just signed a two-year extension with the Raptors as the team continues to collect native Canadians. He is in play on sites where he has power forward eligibility, since Nurkic is far from a defensive presence.

Immanuel Quickley stands out on FanDuel, even with his $8,000 salary and he projects to be on one-in-five tournament rosters. On the four-game evening sub-slate, he is in play on DraftKings as well.

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Zach Collins: Spurs at Kings

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 29.6 | FanDuel: 28.83
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings:67.1% | FanDuel: 20.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $6,100

Victor Wembanyama is out with an ankle sprain, so Zach Collins becomes a near plug and play option on DraftKings ($4,300). Things are a little tighter on FanDuel where he is $1,800 more, but he also has power forward eligibility on the blue site.

Collins is averaging just over a fantasy point per minute this season and while he is playing without Wembanyama, that rate moves to 1.11.

The Spurs are 11 point road dogs in this game, so while a blowout risk is possible, it is also a back-to-back for the Kings. Sacramento pulled off a 130-120 victory in Los Angeles, but the dynamic duo of Domantas Sabonis (38) and De’Aaron Fox (39), played heavy minutes in this game. This is also the third game in four days for the Kings, so if they are a little lead-legged, they could take a little longer than usual to put away the Spurs.

Over the last 10 games, Sacramento has allowed 117.9 points per 100 possessions, which is a bottom-six mark during this timeframe. The Kings have also lost three of the last five games and they are battling with New Orleans and Phoenix, so escape the Play-In Tournament, so every game is important, particularly winnable ones like tonight’s matchup.

Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell and Tre Jones will be strong options as the regular starters, since they will have the first opportunity to absorb the 20.7 points, 16.1 field goal attempts and 10.3 rebounds, vacated by Wembanyama. It will be interesting to see if Keldon Johnson gets the spot start or if it will be Malaki Branham who slid into the first five two games ago when Julian Champagnie was out. Coach Gregg Popovich had intentionally looked to stager Wembanyama and Johnson, to further enhance the development of each, though we will know in ample time to make any final decisions.

In addition to Sabonis who recorded his league-leading 22 triple-double last night and Fox, who had a career-high 44 points, Malik Monk would be the other Sacramento regular who is worthy of consideration on the featured slate.

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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games

Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers

Karl-Anthony Towns is dealing with a meniscus injury in his left knee and there is no estimated return date. That means Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson a Naz Reid will pick up most of the frontcourt minutes, in a tremendous matchup against the Indiana Pacers.

Anthony Edwards was not in the starting lineup for the last game, but he did check in quickly after being delayed in getting out of the lockerroom before tipoff. Then he missed some time in the second half after getting hit on the elbow, but he did return to action after being checked out. In two have his last three games, he has taken just 10 and 11 field goal attempts, which is about half of his typical volume. Do not let recent performance dissuade you from rolling him out in tournaments tonight.

Tyrese Haliburton did look better in his last game, topping 17 points for the first time in six games and getting back to double-digit assists. Minnesota is a tough defense, but Haliburton is on track to being one of the best point guards in the league and he currently is pacing his peers with 11.3 assists per appearance.

Benedict Mathurin is out with a shoulder issue, but the rest of the Pacers are healthy. It is hard to be overly excited about anyone else on the team, but it would not be the worst outcome to end up with the likes of Pascal Siakam or Myles Turner as the last man in.


Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Jonathan Kuminga is popping up on the radar with the under on his 5.5 points prop. This is currently available at odds of -108 on Caesars.

By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can easily take advantage of outliers in a situation such as this, when the other popular books are all posting it at for -120 or worse.

We can see that “sharp” book Pinnacle is down to -136, which is downright punitive. Be a savvy shopper!

Per the true odds of -122 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has an excellent 5.9% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.

NBA Bet Pro currently has Kuminga projected for 28.2 minutes and 5.48 rebounds, which is right in line with the 5.5 target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.

Kuminga has seen his rebounds trending downwards, since the return of Draymond Green from his second suspension of the season. Over the last 13 games, Kuminga has six or more rebounds six (46.1%) times, landing on five in two other games. In this stretch, he is averaging 27.8 minutes an 4.9 rebounds per appearance. Both teams are on the second-leg of back-to-backs, plus Kuminga is going to be dealing with Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond, with the Bulls being an above average rebounding team since the All-Star Break. Golden State is also a strong rebounding team, meaning that Kuminga will be vying with teammates like Green, Kevon Looney, Dario Saric, Brandon Podziemski and even Stephen Curry, who are all strong rebounders for their respective positions.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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