NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Kyle Kuzma, Oh What a Lovely Day! (March 29)

Wednesday brings a festive 10-game featured slate with a 7 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Kyle Kuzma, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Tyrese Haliburton and other recommended options.

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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, March 29

NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Kyle Kuzma: Wizards vs. Pistons

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 44.33 | FanDuel: 43
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 26.6% | FanDuel: 32.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $8,500

Somehow the Wizards have won three of their last four games, and a victory tonight will put them three games up on the Detroit Pistons for the ignominy of having the worst record in the league.

Keep in mind that the bottom 3 teams all receive an equal number of lottery balls, and with the San Antonio Spurs another three games up on Washington, these two teams are now just tanking for tanking’s sake.

Tyus Jones will be missing an eighth consecutive game, and Richaun Holmes (toe) is out as well. For the visitors, Jalen Duren (back) should be a go, but Quentin Grimes and Simone Fontecchio are out, with both Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey questionable as they manage knee soreness. Marcus Sasser was added to the injury report this afternoon as questionable while dealing with an illness, so we are going to want to monitor all the moving parts here.

Over the last 10 games, Detroit has been in the middle of the pack from a defensive perspective, with Washington among the dregs. Both squads are playing at a top-10 pace, which should lead to some fantasy goodness for anyone healthy enough to partake.

Kyle Kuzma is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute in most situations this season, and he should continue as the primary offensive option for the Wizards while contributing across the entire box score. Jordan Poole gets a bump from 0.86 fantasy points per minute when he is on the court with Jones to a solid 1.16 when he is the main guard. In his last seven games since moving back into the starting lineup, the enigmatic mystery man has 40-plus fantasy points in a trio of tilts, including 48 or more in two of his last three games.

Marvin Bagley III will be wildly popular tonight, as the former Arizona Wildcat will have the center role all to himself and he gets a little extra fun going against one of his former squads. Bagley can pile up fantasy points in a hurry, and he could flirt with the 40-fantasy point plateau; something in the low-30s is a realistically attainable outcome. Deni Avdija rounds out the DraftKings core four as Washington has four of the seven most popular players in the early projections. Over on the blue site, Corey Kispert ($5,300) replaces Poole, who is just inside the top 20 most popular options, and Jared Butler ($4,600) sneaks in as well.

Tosan Evbuomwan is likely to start for the fifth time in six games, but he has topped 20 fantasy points only once in this stretch and has not cleared double digits in the last two. Let others take on this ridiculous risk. Chimezie Metu looks like a solid play on FanDuel and DraftKings, with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren as tournament lottery tickets. This duo is not likely to be overburdened with minutes since this is a road game and they are essentially in maintenance mode in yet another lost season.


LeBron James: Lakers at Pacers

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 51.21 | FanDuel: 49.46
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 5.5% | FanDuel: 8.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,300 | FanDuel: $10,300

This is a repeat of Sunday’s game that saw the Lakers win a 150-145 track meet of a game in Los Angeles. The 150 points was the highest total in regulation since early 1987 for the storied franchise.

While it was a lifetime ago in DFS terms, don’t forget that these two teams battled in the inaugural In-Season Tournament.

Both LeBron James and Anthony Davis had double-doubles, with Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton countering for Indiana.

Expect James and Davis to end up on between 15% and 20% of all tournament rosters once the infinite value plays appear closer to first tip. D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves are secondary plays from the Lakers. Myles Turner joins Haliburton and Siakam as the trio to target from Indiana.

Normally a game like this would garner more interest, though with 20 teams in action on DraftKings and 18 on FanDuel, the player pools are more expansive than what has become the new baseline for featured slates.

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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is doubtful with a quad injury that also keep him out of action on Wednesday. This is a crucial game for the Thunder, who are in a dogfight with both the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, with just a half a game separating these teams atop the Western Conference standings. Even with SGA out, Oklahoma City is favored by a bucket at home, which shows just how far behind the top-heavy Phoenix Suns are from a talent perspective against the seemingly endless depth of the Thunder. Jusuf Nurkic is questionable after missing the last game with an ankle issue, but he is a defensive liability and not really moving the needle too much.

Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey will be among the most popular players across the DFS sites tonight, with Chet Holmgren in play as a tournament differentiator. There is no real need to go much deeper than this with ample fantasy point-per-dollar plays coming from other teams.

Nobody on Phoenix is projected to crest over double-digit popularity, which bodes well for Devin Booker and Kevin Durant on the featured slate. Booker has been doing most of the heavy lifting, and that should continue tonight, with Durant also keeping his hand in the mix against the team that drafted him. Each will get a boost in overall usage if Nurkic is out, though if Nurkic is in, he is in play for the late slate, along with oft-injured Bradley Beal.


Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

James Harden has been a key contributor for the Clippers since acclimating himself to his new teammates. However, this is a tough road matchup and Russell Westbrook is back, so the under on his 8.5 assists prop becomes a tasty target, particularly at plus money (+107) on BetRivers, Unibet and SugarHouse.

By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly. All of this makes the -132 on sharp book Pinnacle seem downright dirty.

Per the true odds of -116 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has an elite 11.0% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.

NBA Bet Pro currently has Harden projected for 35.8 minutes 8.01 assists. This projection is below tonight’s targeted threshold but still does not account for variable outcomes. The 54% win rate gives us a good indication that, on a long time horizon, this is exactly the type of wager we are looking for.

In his time with Los Angeles, Harden is averaging 8.6 per game, and while he has nine or more in five of his last six games, that falls to 10 of his last 21.

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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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