NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Terry Rozier is Poppin! (February 7)

Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with a seven-game featured slate, tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Terry Rozier and Caleb Martin while monitoring the availability of Tyrese Maxey and Jrue Holiday.

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, February 7

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Terry Rozier: Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 31.52 | FanDuel: 30.82
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 20.7% | FanDuel: 8.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

Terry Rozier has now played eight games with Miami and he is becoming more acclimated with his new teammates. Over the last four games, Rozier has averaged 32.2 minutes, 13.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.6 combined blocks and steals. While those are not eye-popping numbers, they are still solid when factoring in his reasonable salary, particularly on DraftKings, where he is also eligible for both guard positions.

The matchup against the Spurs is a favorable one as they are allowing 119.1 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games, while playing at a top-10 pace on offense. Caleb Martin moved into the starting lineup yesterday and while he played just 24.7 minutes, that was also a function of the Heat cruising to a 26 point victory over the visiting Orlando Magic. If he stays with the first five, he should have a clearer path to a 28-to-30 minute baseline. Currently he projects as the most popular player on DraftKings (41.5%) and he is the second-most rostered option on FanDuel (38.1%).

While this is a back-to-back for the Heat, they do not play again until Sunday. There is always a chance that Jimmy Butler could get the night off, though he played a reasonable 34 minutes yesterday and was not on the early injury report. If he is out, then Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro would see a bump in baseline fantasy production.

Scottie Barnes: Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 45.82 | FanDuel: 45.64
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 10.2% | FanDuel: 20.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $8,800

It has been 10 games since Pascal Siakam was dealt to the Pacers. In that time Scottie Barnes is averaging 36.0 minutes and 15.5 field goal attempts with a 47.7% conversion rate. This has culminated in 20.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.5 combined blocks and steals.

These figures are all similar to his season long rates, but we also need to realize that in these 10 games, Toronto has a 20 point win and four 20 point losses, including a 38 point disaster on Monday in New Orleans where Barnes played a scant 25.2 minutes.

Charlotte has been a mess on defense once again and over the last 10 games, the team is allowing 121.0 points per 100 possessions with a 47.0% rebound rate, which is ahead of only the Raptors. Barnes should feast in this environment, as should Jacob Poeltl who has regained enough conditioning to play close to his standard 30 minutes.

Miles Bridges looks intriguing from the Hornets, for those looking for a little in-game synergy. Nick Richards is projecting well, but there are other centers with a safer baseline and a better fantasy point per dollar ratio, so he is not a priority.

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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games

Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks

Jrue Holiday is on the injury report with a sore elbow and with the Celtics double-digit home favorites, it would not be a shock if he gets the night off. Boston has seemingly rested at least one player from the starting five in similar situations for most of the season. If Holiday is out, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Derrick White each would see a 5%-to-8% increase in their fantasy production, on top of an already great matchup.

Payton Prichard would move into DFS prominence if Holiday is out, since he is only $3,500 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel. We saw Luka Doncic drop 70 on the Hawks back in late-January and Stephen Curry just racked up 60 this weekend. Clint Capela is out, so that weakens an already dodgy defense and takes a good rebounder off the court.

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors

Joel Embiid is going to be out for at least two months and today Tyrese Maxey missed shoot-around with an illness. If Maxey plays, he is a strong option who will be the focal point of the offense. If he is out, then the 76ers will likely lose for the seventh time in the last eight games. If Maxey misses, Tobias Harris and Kelly Oubre Jr. will assume the main scoring duties, with Patrick Beverley running the offense. Jaden Springer would also become an extreme punt, though he may be replaced as an option once all of the other injury news falls into place. Keep in mind that De’Anthony Melton and Nicolas Batumer are already out, which has already thinned out the rotational depth.

Draymond Green (knee) is questionable and if he is out, that means more frontcourt minutes for Jonathan Kuminga who has been on a tear. The young forward is in the midst of a breakout, having scored 20-plus points in nine of the last 10 games. He moved into the starting lineup five games ago and looks like he will be a permanent fixture with the first five for the near future.

Brandin Podziemski would also get an uplift via the trickledown effect if Green is out, otherwise he is a tournament dart throw at best. Curry has 60-plus fantasy points in three of the last five games and if he is dialed in from downtown, he is a threat for that level in this favorable matchup.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Devin Vassell is an interesting option in the sports wagering market for his under 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop, which is currently available at odds of -115 on several books.

This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.

Hard Rock and BetMGM are reasonable at -115, until we look a little closer and see that they are offering a 28.5 PRA which is one lower than the other books. It is important to be nimble and have funds on a few different sites to capitalize on these market inefficiencies.

Per the true odds of -115 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a steady 3% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.

NBA Bet Pro currently has Vassell projected for 36.2 minutes, 19.20 points, 4.60 rebounds and 4.06 assists for 27.86 PRA. That median projection is favorable when compared to 29.5 PRA, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.

While Vassell has a 31 or better PRA in each of his last five games, stretching back 14 games he has cleared that mark just seven times. He has been the beneficiary of improved 3-point shooting (40.0%) and overall success from the field (51.0%). That, along with the tough matchup in Miami are being accounted for by Bet Pro, which indicates there is some value in the under 29.5 PRA.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM– new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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