NBA Bet Pro’s Best NBA Player Props: Jaren Jackson Jr. Is Elite … When He Avoids Foul Trouble (April 16)

There are four NBA playoff games scheduled for Sunday, and in typical postseason fashion, rotations are expected to be shorter. Therefore, it is crucial to subscribe to NBA Bet Pro to ensure that you receive the greatest value for NBA player props. Today’s projections are loving Lakers-Grizzlies props, and here are the top three that NBA Bet Pro has recognized as the best +EV plays for that game.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | April 16

3. Santi Aldama Under 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-123, Caesars)

Save for the long-standing injuries to Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams, the Grizzlies are healthy. And with the playoffs leading to shorter rotations, Aldama is more likely to see minutes in the 12 to 16 range as opposed to the 20-plus he had been seeing on a regular basis. Plus, David Roddy is seeing double-digit minutes more often lately, so he and Aldama will likely split the role as eighth man in the rotation today. And when Aldama has played less than 17 minutes this year, he has stayed under 13.5 points + assists + rebounds in every game but one (15 of 16 games).

NBA Bet Pro is only projecting Aldama for 10.3 points + assists + rebounds, giving the under on 13.5 a 60% win expectancy and nearly a 10% expected ROI.


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2. Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 8.5 Rebounds (-137, BetRivers)

The Lakers are fourth in pace this season, but keep in mind that they had Russell Westbrook for much of that time. With D’Angelo Russell taking his place, Los Angeles has dropped to 14th in the league over the last 15 games, so this is actually a pace down for the Grizzlies. And Jackson’s Defensive Player of the Year case has little to do with his rebounding numbers, as he only averaged 6.8 per game (largely due to his surprisingly low minutes average of 28.4) and hit the over on 8.5 in just 14 of 63 games this season (22.2%).

Now, playoff time means Jackson will get minutes as long as he stays out of foul trouble. That said, staying out of foul trouble has been an issue for Jackson, as he averaged 3.6 per game — first in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Lakers were second in the league in fouls drawn per game. As such, NBA Bet Pro only projects Jackson for 8.0 rebounds, leading to a 63% win rate for the under.

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1. Jarred Vanderbilt Over 5.5 Rebounds (+102, BetRivers)

Based on NBA Bet Pro‘s projections, this is a bad misprice on Vanderbilt’s rebounds, and that is leading to a whopping 10% expected EV. Stokastic has Vanderbilt for 6.7 rebounds in just 20.7 minutes today.

Vanderbilt averaged 7.5 rebounds this season, 6.7 since joining the Lakers, and he has been a key cog in the Los Angeles turnaround. He has the defensive versatility and offensive utility to guarantee minutes despite the playoffs tightening rotations, and 20.7 even seems like a conservative minutes estimate. The only thing that could cut into his playing time is Memphis going small and forcing Los Angeles to do the same, but even then Vanderbilt is a quality small-ball power forward if need be.

All told, Vanderbilt went over 5.5 rebounds in 13 of 24 games with the Lakers (54.2%), so this is NBA Bet Pro‘s No. 1 +EV prop of the day.

Sam Smith
Author
Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.

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