Game 1 of the Finals is a great spot to get some leverage on soft lines before the matchups make the books adjust as they should. As we try to find those spots, NBA Bet Pro is the perfect tool to get high-EV NBA player props, as it uses market-based analytics to show where books are lapsing. Today we have three Game 1 Heat-Nuggets props that are getting an EV of 8% on NBA Bet Pro. Let’s get into the picks.
But do note that there are 24 other +EV plays in the model at the moment. Want to find out what they are? Sign up now and take advantage of Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Today’s Top NBA Player Props From NBA Bet Pro | June 1
3. Michael Porter Jr. Under 7.5 Rebounds (-115, PointsBet)
Porter’s playoff rebounding numbers have been strong, as he is averaging 8.0 a game and has gone over 7.5 more than half the time. Both teams are also projecting for much tighter rotations. As such, NBA Bet Pro has Porter playing over 37 minutes in this game — sixth most on the one-game slate.
However, this game does not project to be overly high scoring. Miami and Denver have each been in the bottom half of the playoff teams in pace, and the total right now is 218.5. So while Porter projects for a huge share of minutes, and the fifth-most rebounds, that is only leading to a projection of 6.5, a full board shy of the line. Plus, Aaron Gordon is probably going to defend Jimmy Butler, which means two things: One, he will be on the floor a ton (projects for 36.8 minutes), and two, he will likely defend a lot of shots in the paint. Porter, on the other hand, figures to be on the perimeter a bit more.
All together, the under on 7.5 rebounds for Porter has a 58% win expectancy and an 8% EV.
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2. Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Assists (-112, BetRivers)
1. Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-141, BetRivers)
Denver’s offense is a fine-tuned machine. That said, shot creation runs almost entirely through its two stars, Murray and Jokic. Those two are projected for 7.2 and 12.0 assists, respectively, while everyone else on the Nuggets combined projects for 8.9. And though this figures to be a lower-scoring matchup relative to some other games this postseason, the Nuggets are still an easy 115 to 120 points most nights, so the assist opportunities will be there.
Murray hit exactly five assists in three of four games against the Lakers last series — but Anthony Davis was locking down the paint and Murray had to score. And despite dropping 30-plus in three of those four games as well, he never had fewer than five assists. The Heat do not have a rim protector like Davis and thus should open up more opportunities for Murray to distribute rather than shoot in bunches.
Jokic, meanwhile, went for at least 10 assists in three of four games against the Lakers and is averaging 10.3 in the postseason. No matter the opponent, Jokic’s gravity is going to create assist opportunities, and betting on him to get double digits is a no-brainer. Plus, these two have a symbiotic game that works beautifully off of each other, leading to assists and buckets for each. Therefore, counterintuitive as it may seem, Jokic getting a lot of assists does not necessarily leech assists from Murray, and vice versa — remember, these are essentially the only playmakers Denver has.
Jokic’s over gets a slight boost to a 63% win expectancy, though Murray is not far behind at 57%. Both overs have 8% expected ROIs.
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