PrizePicks NBA Player Projections: Hop On Jaylen Brown While Everyone Else Is Off Him (May 21)

This NBA Sunday brings us to Miami for Game 3 of the Heat-Celtics matchup, offering some great spots for NBA PrizePicks. Once again, we will utilize Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro to identify the top two NBA PrizePicks for May 21.

Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro lets you sort by the win percentage column to see the greatest difference between the projection set by PrizePicks and Stokastic’s projections. Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks.

React App

NBA Player PrizePicks | May 21

Get one month of Stokastic+ Platinum FREE when you make your first deposit on PrizePicks

Jaylen Brown More Than 36.0 Fantasy Points

This one seems pretty simple; it is a little like the Bam Adebayo situation from the past week or two. Brown is going to play 40 minutes tonight assuming the game is competitive — the spread is 3.5, so it is expected to be competitive, with Boston playing for its season. Brown was awful in Game 2, but it is not like the playing time is going anywhere. Over the past 30 days, Brown has scored 0.98 fantasy points per minute. If he is playing 40 minutes today, that is 39.2 fantasy points, well above the 36 mark.

He could even play a little more than 40 minutes; it is not like the Celtics have anything for which to save him. This number might make more sense if this were a regular season game, but in the playoffs the more is far likelier.

Gabe Vincent More Than 19.5 Fantasy Points

Stokastic has Vincent at 23.5 fantasy points on PrizePicks, as he is playing significantly more minutes right now than Kyle Lowry. This situation could change; however, he should get 30-plus minutes at 0.68 fantasy points per minute. That is not even that good of a rate, but at 32 minutes that puts him at 21.8 fantasy points already — and he could push for 36 to 38 minutes.

The Heat are up 2-0, and Vincent has played a ton, so going more than 19.5 makes a lot of sense. It is unlikely he will play less than 30 minutes, and as long as he gets to that number, he should get more than 19.5 fantasy points.

These are just two of the +EV plays on the NBA PrizePicks slate. Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro has 39 more plays with more than a 50% expected win rate! Check them out HERE, and also check out OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Tool!!

Josh Engleman
Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
MLB Lineup Study
MLB Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
NHL Discord Server
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
PGA Lineup Study
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
Formula 1 Projections
F1 Discord Server
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability

Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings

NBA DFS Projections

NBA Data Central

FanDuel NBA Ownership Projections

Yahoo! NBA Ownership Projections

Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics