PrizePicks NBA Player Projections: Keep Hammering Bam Adebayo (May 25)

As we approach the NBA Finals, the Heat have the chance to eliminate the Celtics and secure their spot despite dropping Game 4. This Thursday’s NBA game presents thrilling possibilities for NBA PrizePicks, and we will utilize Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro to discover the two most promising NBA PrizePicks for May 25.

Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro lets you sort by the win percentage column to see the greatest difference between the projection set by PrizePicks and Stokastic’s projections. Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks.

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NBA Player PrizePicks | May 25

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Bam Adebayo More Than 34.0 Fantasy Points

Stop me if you have heard this before, but 34 is simply not a correct projection for Adebayo. It is unclear why it went back down now that the Heat are without Gabe Vincent. Stokastic has Adebayo projected for 40.8 fantasy points on PrizePicks, as he averages at least a fantasy point per minute and projects for 38 minutes in this game. Even if he only plays 36, he still goes over 34 fantasy points at his typical rate.

Adebayo has been hitting these most days, and his more/less will be higher than 34 at some point. If it stays low, use this more play until the projection changes. Even if Stokastic is slightly over-projecting him, a 6-point difference from PrizePicks’ projection is simply too much. Keep hammering the more.

Jaylen Brown More Than 34.5 Fantasy Points

The same logic applies here with Brown, though he has not been hitting the more lately. Still, he averages a fantasy point per minute and projects for 40 minutes; thus, he projects for 40 fantasy points. This is an elimination game in the Eastern Conference Finals — Brown is going to play a lot. And though he has underperformed the last few games, in the long run he will go for more than 34.5 fantasy points more often than not whenever he plays upwards of 40 minutes.

If he plays less than 40 minutes, it will be because of a blowout, foul trouble or injury. A normal game script should have Brown playing most of the game, and it is even more likely Brown will play a lot since Malcolm Brogdon is dinged up. Do not go with the recent trend on Brown — instead, play the probabilities, and the most likely situation is Brown exceeding 34.5 fantasy points.

These are just two of the +EV plays on the NBA PrizePicks slate. Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro has 26 more plays with more than a 50% expected win rate! Check them out HERE.

Josh Engleman
Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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