NHL DFS Picks Today: Connor Bedard Value! (March 12)

There are 10 games in the NHL tonight and in a fun scheduling twist, 11 of the 12 teams giving up the most goals per 60 minutes since the All-Star break are on the board. With injuries and trades over the last week, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for roster updates. Nevertheless, onto our NHL DFS picks today!

NHL DFS Picks Today: Lineup Decisions, Expert Advice & More

NHL DFS Picks Today: Center

Connor Bedard (CHI vs. ANH)

DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

In his 12 games since returning from injury, Bedard has 13 points and 37 shots on goal. His 82-game paces this season work out to 31 goals, 43 assists, and 3.0 shots per game as his rookie campaign has been a marvel. The current iteration of Chicago’s top line has scored just 2.7 goals/60 minutes in over 260 minutes together, which isn’t high-end by any means, but they also face an Anaheim roster that is in the bottom-5 by both expected goals against/60 and actual goals against/60 at 5-on-5 since the All-Star break.

Not only is it a good 5-on-5 matchup for Bedard, but it is also an excellent power play matchup. Over the last eight weeks, Anaheim has taken 4.5 minor penalties per game, the second-most of any team in the league. The result has been a whopping 23 power play goals allowed in their last 20 games, or 12.5 goals against/60 on the penalty kill. Chicago’s top line is also their top power play unit and has scored 11.7 goals/60 in their time together, so our center has good matchups all over the ice.

Bedard is third among all centers on this slate by fantasy point projections for both DK and FD. He is well outside the top-3 centers by pricing, so there is very good relative value for him, and very good point-per-dollar value. He will draw high ownership rates because of the matchup, but that value is hard to ignore.

Shane Pinto (OTT vs. PIT)

DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

Ottawa has lost seven straight games, but it hasn’t been for lack of production from Pinto as he’s posted two goals, six assists, and 3.7 shots per game in that span. Since his return from suspension, he has 18 points in 21 games, averaging 3.3 shots per game, so the offence has been very good. His top-line duo with Brady Tkachuk has been extremely productive at 5-on-5, averaging 44.5 shots, 4.2 expected goals, and 4.0 actual goals per 60 minutes. He has been moved off the team’s top power play unit, but just 2/18 of his points have been with the man advantage anyway, so it’s not been vital to his fantasy value.

Pittsburgh is visiting Ottawa, and the Penguins are 26th by expected goals against/60 and 27th by actual goals against/60 at 5-on-5 since the All-Star break. The team’s defence has fallen apart and it has resulted in at least four goals against in 8/17 games since the break. There are high team totals on both sides of this contest, but Pinto is at home and on a line that has offered a lot of offense despite the franchise’s slide.

Pinto is priced similarly to Bedard, but his projections are lower, but he still ranks second among DK centers priced under $6,500 and has a point-per-$1,000 value on FD of 2.0. His projected ownership is under 10% on the former site and under 5% on the latter, so he’s a tournament pivot away from the higher-owned Bedard.


NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger

Travis Konecny (PHI vs. SJ)

DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

Konecny’s last game saw him skate just 16:42, but it was also a game where his team was blown out 7-0. Prior to that, the winger had gone 14 consecutive outings with at least 18 minutes in ice time, averaging 21:16 in that stretch. Those 14 games saw him post six goals, eight assists, and 3.1 shots per game. Philadelphia has been shuffling their lines quite a bit, but that doesn’t matter a whole lot for tonight as they host San Jose, the franchise that is dead last in the league by expected goals against/60 and actual goals against/60 at 5-on-5 since the All-Star break.

Short-handed upside is rarely considered an appealing part of a player’s DFS matchup, but this is a special situation. Konecny leads the league in shots on goal while on the penalty kill, he is tied for the league lead in short-handed goals, and Philadelphia has scored seven times with him on the ice for the PK. San Jose has given up the most shots against/60 with the man advantage, and sixth-most goals against/60. It isn’t the biggest part of Konecny’s appeal – it is a tremendous 5-on-5 matchup – but it certainly doesn’t hurt.

Fantasy point projections are not kind to Konecny tonight as his point-per-$1,000 DK value is under 1.7, and under 1.8 on FD. However, ownership projections for both sites are 10% or less, so there won’t be a lot of DFS players using him in what is a tremendous home matchup against San Jose.

Matt Boldy (MIN vs. ARI)

DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

On the topic of penalty kills, Arizona’s had been struggling mightily for a while now. Over the last eight weeks they have taken 4.2 minor penalties per game, which is the third-most in the league. That span has seen them allow 24 power play goals against in 23 games as they struggle to kill off the plethora of penalties produced. Conversely, Minnesota has drawn the third-most minor penalties per game in that same span, leading the league in shots/60 on the power play and tallying 22 goals in 22 games. This is a matchup of a very poor penalty kill and a pretty proficient power play.

In those 22 Minnesota games, Boldy had 24 points with eight of them with the man advantage. Overall, he averaged 3.5 shots per game in that span, reaching the DraftKings shot bonus six times. He has also averaged over 20 minutes a game in his recent 10 outings as the team has heavily relied on the top of their lineup to stay anywhere close to the playoff race.

In a situation that mirrors the Bedard/Pinto center duo, Boldy’s projections are much stronger than Konecny’s, resulting in point-per-$1,000 marks of at least 2.0 on both sites. However, it’s also leading to much more ownership as he’s projected for at least 12% on DK and FD, and one of the highest rates for a winger on DK, specifically.

Alex Nylander (CLS at MON)

DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

The trade of Jack Roslovic has opened up some more ice time for Columbus forwards and Nylander skated 18:28 in the first game without Roslovic, his second-highest mark of the season. It is a sample of just over 90 minutes thus far, but Nylander has formed a solid duo with Cole Sillinger as the team is creating 37.9 shots/60, 3.7 expected goals/60, and 5.1 actual goals/60 at 5-on-5 with them on the ice. Their 13.6% shooting is high, but even just 9% shooting would still leave them with a high goal-scoring rate because of how much offence they are creating in their time on the ice.

Adding to Nylander’s upside tonight is the power play matchup. Montreal is tied for seventh by most minor penalties taken per game over the last eight weeks, ranking 23rd by shots against/60 on the penalty kill. Nylander has been moved to Columbus’s top power play unit and while they haven’t typically been dangerous this season, they should get their chances against a poor penalty-killing team tonight.

A lack of NHL sample – just 22 games over the last two seasons – are keeping Nylander’s projections muted, but it’s also pushing down his ownership – he’s projected under 2% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He can be used as a one-off winger because he’s the lone player on his line on the top PP unit, but can be used in a line stack for tournaments.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Defender

MacKenzie Weegar (CGY vs. COL)

DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

In five games since Calgary traded defenceman Chris Tanev, Weegar has averaged 25:03 per night in ice time, a huge increase on the 22:11 he earned in the games before the trade. Weegar has three assists in those five appearances while posting 15 shots and 12 blocks along the way. That increased role led to two DK shot bonuses and two DK block bonuses, so there has been a big uptick in peripherals. Facing a Colorado team that likes to push the pace is a good spot for Weegar to rack up those peripherals, which is why he appears on this list.

Of all blue liners on tonight’s slate, Weegar ranks third by fantasy point projections on DraftKings and fifth on FanDuel. He is not among the top-5 rearguards by cost, so the relative value is fine. He can be used in tournament formats on this slate, though his DK ownership is projected over 11% so it seems he will be popular.

Bowen Byram (BUF vs. DET)

DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

It has been just two games for Byram with his new team, but Buffalo has been using him much more heavily than when he was in Colorado by skating 24:58 and 25:46 in those two appearances. They are two of his three highest ice time totals of the season and resulted in one goal, one assist, seven shots, and a block. He has also been skating on Buffalo’s top power play unit and while there’s no real sample to work with, Detroit is giving up more shots/60 on the penalty kill of any team not named Arizona over the last eight weeks. That Detroit is 28th by expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 in those eight weeks certainly helps the even-strength matchup for Byram as well.

Byram’s DK point-per-$1,000 value is a shade over 2.0, which is very good, though it is lower on FD. Regardless, a tremendous home matchup against Detroit and heavy usage at a low price on either site means Byram is in play in all formats.

React App

NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie

Igor Shesterkin (NYR at CAR)

DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

New York is playing their second game in as many nights, which gives Carolina the rest advantage, but it remains a good spot for Shesterkin. Since the All-Star break, the Hurricanes lead the league in shot attempts/60 minutes at 5-on-5 while the Rangers are 28th by shot attempts against/60. In our goalie’s 10 starts in that span, he has averaged 34.3 shots faced but has given up just 18 goals, reaching the DK save bonus four times and posting two shutouts. He has looked much more like the Shesterkin from the first four seasons of his career than the first half of this campaign, and it’s led to some big DFS performances. He should have the chance to rack up a lot of saves in this matchup.

The Stokastic GoalieStats section has this Rangers goalie sixth by projected saves tonight but 10th by projected goals against. That gap is where DFS value lives, particularly on DK, and it gives him good value for a cheap netminder.

FanDuel users looking for a cheaper goalie in a better position to win, consider Filip Gustavsson (MIN, $7,800) at home to Arizona.

Stokastic’s NHL Premium subscription is available in either weekly or monthly packages and includes NHL DFS projections, top stacks, expert Discord and more! Join today!

NHL DFS Top Stacks Today

MON1: Cole Caufield – Nick Suzuki – Juraj Slafkovský

In 15 games and 195 minutes at 5-on-5 since the All-Star break, this Montreal trio has averaged 35.7 shots, 3.4 expected goals, and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes. That span has seen tonight’s opponent tie for 26th in the league by expected goals against/60 at that strength, so it’s a good matchup for this premiere trio.

Each forward on this line has averaged at least 20 minutes a game in that post-break span, so they’re getting heavy usage to go with the perfect power play correlation. Columbus’s penalty kill has given up the third-most goals against/60 over the team’s last 20 games, so it’s a good special team spot for this Montreal unit as well.

Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has this Montreal trio fourth by top-2 stack probability on DraftKings tonight, ranking third on FD. Their projected ownership is right around that top-2 percentage (a bit higher on FD than DK), so there isn’t much leverage, but they aren’t overly expensive and are in a very good matchup.


BUF3: Jeff Skinner – Peyton Krebs – JJ Peterka

Buffalo has taken a hatchet to their lineup and this third line has been one of the results. This isn’t a typical third line, though, as Peterka and Skinner have very good 5-on-5 numbers together this season: 35.3 shots/60, 2.7 expected goals/60, and 6.3 actual goals/60. The shooting percentage is very high but like Nylander earlier in this column, even just 9% shooting would mean a goal rate well above average by virtue of the amount of offence created. Dylan Larkin remains out of the lineup for Detroit and the Red Wings are tied with the aforementioned Columbus Blue Jackets for 26th by expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 since the All-Star break.

Of all DraftKings lines projected by the Top Stacks tool and priced under $13,000, this Buffalo trio has the third-highest top-2 stack probability, and their projected ownership (1.4%) is considerably lower than the two lines ahead of them (4.2% and 6.2%). DFS players looking for a filler stack should consider this Sabres unit.

*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick

sleeper fantasy promo code stokastic4
Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.