This week is obviously super unique for PGA DFS purposes. The event itself features the smallest event of the season, with just 30 players teeing things up and no alternates. Luckily, Hideki Matsuyama has not qualified, so withdrawals are not likely to be a factor. However, there is also a handicap starting formula whereby the leader (Scottie Scheffler) will get to start at 10 under and the rest of the field gets staggered starting scores underneath him:
10 Under: Scottie Scheffler
8 Under: Viktor Hovland
7 Under: Rory McIlroy
6 Under: Jon Rahm
5 Under: Lucas Glover
4 Under: Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matthew Fitzpatrick
3 Under: Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
2 Under: Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Si Woo Kim
1 Under: Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day
Even par – Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka
For DFS, placement points will matter, so take these starting scores into account when looking at player prices. East Lake is also a unique Donald Ross design that typically plays well for consistent off-tee players.
Below we will go through some of the best under-the-radar pivot plays at various price points for the Tour Championship. We will also look at some names that are perhaps trending too hot in the ownership department and may warrant a fade in larger GPPs. As always, we will use Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and PGA DFS ownership projections to help make our decisions for the fade/pivot list at the Tour Championship.
PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | Tour Championship
East Lake Stats and Info
- Par 70, 7,319 yards; a Donald Ross design that features Bermuda greens.
- Ranked as the 14th-toughest venue on tour in 2020; Jon Rahm shot 14 under par in 2021 over four rounds, and Rory McIlroy shot 17 under par in four rounds last year, the best score ever in the new handicap format.
- Six par 4’s measure over 450 yards; driving accuracy is 5% to 7% under PGA Tour average, and scrambling percentage is also slightly under tour average.
2023 Tour Championship PGA DFS Fades and Pivots
High-Range PGA DFS Fade: Xander Schauffele
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 20.6%
Let’s be upfront: Fading Xander Schauffele at East Lake is scary. He has finished top 5 at this event each of the past seasons and nabbed a win on this course his first time playing it. Still, past history is no guarantee of future success, and Schauffele’s course history does offer up a leverage opportunity. His ownership will be well over 15% despite a DraftKings salary that has him jacked up all the way to $10,500 even though he is starting at just 3 under par. Schauffele projects well in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, but from a value perspective, there are other members of the 3-under starting group that offer far better value and similar upside. How one approaches Schauffele depends on the DFS format, but for big GPPs his PGA DFS ownership projections and the cost of rostering make him an excellent game theory fade, as many likely will not want to take that sort of risk.
High-Range Pivot: Tommy Fleetwood
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 11.1%
If fading Schauffele, then it makes sense look to his range for a pivot. Luckily, Tommy Fleetwood is also starting at 3 under par and has matched Schauffele at almost every turn in 2023. He has the odd missed cut on his ledger, but Fleetwood has produced five top-6 finishes over his last 10 starts and was a force in the last two majors. Despite the massive discount by taking Fleetwood ($8,800) over Schauffele, there is still a sizeable ownership gap forming between the two. The value score for Fleetwood on Stokastic has him as one of the best overall value plays in the $8,000 range, so the fact he also offers great leverage over Schauffele makes him extremely attractive. The negative course history is slightly concerning, but it is not enough to pass up the opportunity to roster Fleetwood one more time in 2023.
Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Tom Kim
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 26.5%
Kim has been quite a wild ride in 2023. He was a great fade at the start of the year when everyone had already awarded him the gold jacket and multiple major wins. However, he has gotten it together of late and finished second at the final major. Kim is cheap at $7,900 on DraftKings and starts at 2 under par — a grouping that has produced some top-5 finishers at this event over the seasons. Unfortunately, this scenario has also caused his ownership to skyrocket, and he will be one of the top-owned players on the slate in large fields. Kim is playing East Lake for the first time in his career and also comes in off a couple of mediocre ball-striking weeks. If his putter cools down, he could eject from this no-cut event early. At sky-high PGA DFS ownership projections, Kim makes for a good fade in the last event of the regular season.
Mid-Range Pivot: Keegan Bradley
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 9.0%
Everyone here is motivated to finish higher up due to the insane pay jumps available, but one player who should be extra motivated for a good showing is Keegan Bradley. Bradley sits inside the top 12 of the current Ryder Cup point getters at the moment but by all accounts will likely be the odd man out once the selection process is finished. A big week by him, however, would really get him back in the Ryder Cup conversation, and there are some signs that he could deliver on that trend. While he has not had the greatest playoffs to date, Bradley gained 1.5 strokes putting last week and has played East Lake four times previously. At under 10% PGA DFS ownership projections, he is also projected to be one of the lowest-owned players on the slate, which automatically makes him a great GPP pivot given the smaller field. Considering Bradley also starts in front of Kim, he makes for a great pivot play off the higher-owned youngster.
