The PGA Tour season continues on this week as it heads to Muirfield Village (par 72, 7,571 yards, bentgrass greens) in Dublin, Ohio, for the Memorial Tournament. Last season, Billy Horschel won this event by four strokes. This week’s field consists of 120 golfers, including 22 of the top-25 players in the world, so there is a lot to break down for the top PGA DFS picks. Let’s look at Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs this week.
Leverage scores compare a golfer’s ownership to their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top-6 of the tournament. It is one of many metrics in Stokastic’s tools that use the fantasy point and ownership projections to find the top PGA DFS plays each week.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: Memorial Tournament
Jack Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village. It is a tree-lined course that presents wide fairways, small greens and water on 13 of the 18 holes. This par 72 is without a doubt one of the most difficult non-major tracks used at the PGA Tour level. To succeed here, golfers need to be in strong form with the irons and as a short-game player.
Horschel became the fourth straight Memorial champion last season that finished the tournament top-11 in both strokes gained on approach and around the green. Golfers also need to be efficient at avoiding bogeys at Muirfield Village, and efficient on the par 5’s if they want to contend. Over the last four years, three of the golfers to win the Memorial have ranked top-five in both bogey avoidance and par-5 efficiency.
Collin Morikawa
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 2nd, FanDuel: 1st
Collin Morikawa needs to be one of your core PGA DFS GPP plays for the Memorial Tournament, with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has produced five top-10 finishes in 17 starts this season. Morikawa has collectively gained strokes on approach and around the green in back-to-back starts coming into this week. He also ranks 10th in par-5 efficiency over his last fifty rounds, which bodes well for the trip to Muirfield Village on tap.
Morikawa was the runner-up at the 2021 Memorial, and he also won the 2020 Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village. His natural fade makes him an excellent fit for this venue, and if Morikawa can find some luck with his putter, he will be in the mix for a win this weekend.
Eric Cole
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 27th, FanDuel: 42nd
Eric Cole is slated to be less than 3% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel after letting down many PGA DFS players and missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week. This makes him a great buy low candidate. Cole may have been sent home early from the Charles Schwab Challenge, but he still gained strokes on approach and around the green at Colonial, marking the fifth straight start he has been positive in both categories. Cole ranks top-20 in strokes gained on approach, strokes gained around the green and bogey avoidance over his last fifty rounds and had recorded three top-25 finishes in his previous four starts before missing the cut at Colonial.
Cole has all the tools to flourish at Muirfield Village and he should get back on track with a quality finish in his Memorial debut this week. The last two times Cole has missed a cut, he has gone on to card a top-25 finish in his next start.
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Ryan Fox
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 22nd, FanDuel: 8th
Ryan Fox is far too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. And not only is Fox a great value, he’s projected to have single-digit ownership on both sites according to Stokastic’s projections, making him one of the best GPP options on the board.
Fox has only missed one cut in seven starts this year, with all six of those finishes being top-30 results. He has gained strokes with his irons and his putter in back-to-back starts. Although Fox did miss the cut in his lone start at Muirfield Village in 2019, he is a much better player this time around and should redeem himself with a quality finish this week. Fox was the 88th ranked player in the world entering the 2019 Memorial, but now sits at No.41 in the world.
Mark Hubbard
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 18th, FanDuel: 44th
Mark Hubbard has made two straight cuts at the Memorial and should extend this streak this week. He arrives in Dublin fresh off a ninth at the Charles Schwab Challenge. The result marked his fifth consecutive made cut and highest finish of the season. Hubbard gained strokes in every major category during this finish, except off the tee, including 7.3 strokes on approach, which ranked third for the event.
Hubbard is now 4-for-4 in made cuts at courses that present bentgrass greens this season, including two top-30 finishes. He has the potential for another top-30 finish this weekend. He’s a superb, cheap target for GPPs, with Stokastic forecasting Hubbard to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
![College football Week 5 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let's get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 29. CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday, Sept. 29 Quarterback Emory Jones ($6,900): The top price-adjusted quarterback on the slate, Emory Jones, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-point favorites over BYU in a game with a 48 total. Jones averages 242.5 passing yards per game on 31 attempts. He also has elite mobility, with 32 designed attempts through four games. Hank Bachmeier ($5,800): Hank Bachmeier should have a better chance to play this game after being available "in case of emergency" last week. Louisiana Tech ranks 63rd in pace and passes 55.6% of the time. This makes whoever starts at quarterback a strong value. Jack Turner played well in place of Bachmeier last week and actually looks to provide decent mobility. If Bachmeier misses, Turner is an easy swap option. Jack Plummer ($8,500): On a relatively weak quarterback slate, Jack Plummer stands out between the pair of expensive options. Louisville comes in as a 3-point favorite over North Carolina State in a game with a 55.5 total. Plummer has averaged 280 passing yards per game and is hyper-efficient. The North Carolina State defense projects to provide little resistance, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Plummer also has 13 designed rush attempts this year, which helps prevent the negative rushing stats from early in his career. the_ad id="340345"] Running Back Jawhar Jordan ($7,000): Louisville has begun to feature Jawhar Jordan at the expense of Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner. Jordan has 18 carries in back-to-back games and four targets in that span. His route rate has also eclipsed 50% in those two games. Jacob Fields ($3,700): Louisiana Tech is dealing with injuries to Keith Willis Jr., Charvis Thornton and Tyre Shelton. Marquis Crosby has also yet to play this year. If this injury situation breaks right, Jacob Fields should lead a committee also featuring Keldric Moody. This is a pure late-news situation. L.J. Martin ($5,100): Corey Kiner ($4,700): Ryan Montgomery left last week's game with an injury, allowing Corey Kiner to receiver more work. He finished with 10 carries and three targets in a decisive loss to Oklahoma. His workload stands to increase in more competitive games. Watch Montgomery's status ahead of kickoff. Jaylon Glover ($5,000): Utah already lost Micah Bernard for the year, and Ja'Quinden Jackson enters this game with the questionable tag. If out, Jaylon Glover projects to handle a feature back workload. Last week he saw 25 carries and one target. Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s' college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now! Wide Receiver Isaac Rex ($4,700): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, BYU still ranks 58th in pace and passes 57.4% of the time. Tight end Isaac Rex not only paces the team in targets (34), but he has the best route rate of the group as well. Smoke Harris ($6,800): One of the premier receivers on the slate, Smoke Harris averages 73.4 receiving yards per game on a 26.9% target share. In the Louisiana Tech offense this equates to 8.6 targets per game. Braden Smith ($4,200): Braden Smith ranks second on Cincinnati with 22 targets this year, averaging 49.5 yards per game. He projects as one of the top price-adjusted receivers on the slate. Jamari Thrash ($6,600):  Jamari Thrash is one of the most explosive receivers in college football, averaging 100 yards per game behind a 25.2% target share. With little salary restrictions on this slate, Thrash should be a priority.
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