Every advantage matters in golf, and that includes weather. Some wave advantages are greater than others, but the PGA DFS weather forecast for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open does show an advantage during the first two rounds for Rory McIlroy, Adrian Meronk and others.
Using Stokastic’s PGA Weather Splits tool, which calculates potential strokes gained based on the weather, we can see who may have an edge based on tee times.
The weather report heading into Thursday’s opening round suggests the edge belongs to those teeing off late on Thursday and early Friday, as Friday afternoon’s forecast will be worse than what is seen Friday morning or all day Thursday.
Using the tool, let’s highlight a few key players DFS players may want to consider or avoid based on the waves. If you want to use the tool yourself, try a PGA subscription with the coupon code “SCORE” and get a 50% discount on your first week or first month!
PGA DFS Weather: Canadian Open Report, Forecast & DFS Projections
Rory McIlroy
The most expensive player by far is McIlroy, with an $11,500 salary on DraftKings. While there is no huge advantage or disadvantage for any player when factoring in combined rounds, it’s nice to know McIlroy will see a small edge.
According to Stokastic’s metrics, McIlroy has 0.04 SG_Weather. That’s carried by a 0.10 SG_Weather on Thursday, where he has close to the biggest advantage on the day. He doesn’t get the ideal tee time Friday and has a -0.06 SG_Weather, but he misses the worst of Friday as well.
McIlroy projects to be in the optimal DFS lineup more often than any other golfer in the field, but he’s currently not carrying the highest PGA DFS ownership projections. That makes him slightly negative leverage but not the worst option in the field.
And, of course, negative leverage doesn’t mean ignore McIlroy. It just means you’ll have to look at other tiers to get a little unique in your lineups.
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Adrian Meronk
Meronk is easily the most popular player in the $8,000 range, projecting for over 17% ownership at DraftKings. But it will be a tale of two rounds. On Thursday, Meronk’s -0.16 SG_Weather score is almost the worst in the round. For Showdown contests on Friday, however, Meronk may be one of the best options. His 0.21 SG_Weather is the best score in the second round. That makes him a net-positive for the opening rounds, but it’s important to see they’re projecting as different weather challenges.
Sahith Theegala
Theegala gets the worst of Thursday and nearly the best of Friday. That’s nearly a breakeven for the first two rounds, but players should be aware of the differences.
On Thursday, Theegala is among the groups with the worst SG_Weather projection at -0.17. Friday is near the top at +0.18. Theegala isn’t super popular in the $9,000 range, but getting all the information for one of your key lineup cogs will still go a long way.
![College football Week 5 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let's get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 29. CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday, Sept. 29 Quarterback Emory Jones ($6,900): The top price-adjusted quarterback on the slate, Emory Jones, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-point favorites over BYU in a game with a 48 total. Jones averages 242.5 passing yards per game on 31 attempts. He also has elite mobility, with 32 designed attempts through four games. Hank Bachmeier ($5,800): Hank Bachmeier should have a better chance to play this game after being available "in case of emergency" last week. Louisiana Tech ranks 63rd in pace and passes 55.6% of the time. This makes whoever starts at quarterback a strong value. Jack Turner played well in place of Bachmeier last week and actually looks to provide decent mobility. If Bachmeier misses, Turner is an easy swap option. Jack Plummer ($8,500): On a relatively weak quarterback slate, Jack Plummer stands out between the pair of expensive options. Louisville comes in as a 3-point favorite over North Carolina State in a game with a 55.5 total. Plummer has averaged 280 passing yards per game and is hyper-efficient. The North Carolina State defense projects to provide little resistance, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Plummer also has 13 designed rush attempts this year, which helps prevent the negative rushing stats from early in his career. the_ad id="340345"] Running Back Jawhar Jordan ($7,000): Louisville has begun to feature Jawhar Jordan at the expense of Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner. Jordan has 18 carries in back-to-back games and four targets in that span. His route rate has also eclipsed 50% in those two games. Jacob Fields ($3,700): Louisiana Tech is dealing with injuries to Keith Willis Jr., Charvis Thornton and Tyre Shelton. Marquis Crosby has also yet to play this year. If this injury situation breaks right, Jacob Fields should lead a committee also featuring Keldric Moody. This is a pure late-news situation. L.J. Martin ($5,100): Corey Kiner ($4,700): Ryan Montgomery left last week's game with an injury, allowing Corey Kiner to receiver more work. He finished with 10 carries and three targets in a decisive loss to Oklahoma. His workload stands to increase in more competitive games. Watch Montgomery's status ahead of kickoff. Jaylon Glover ($5,000): Utah already lost Micah Bernard for the year, and Ja'Quinden Jackson enters this game with the questionable tag. If out, Jaylon Glover projects to handle a feature back workload. Last week he saw 25 carries and one target. Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s' college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now! Wide Receiver Isaac Rex ($4,700): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, BYU still ranks 58th in pace and passes 57.4% of the time. Tight end Isaac Rex not only paces the team in targets (34), but he has the best route rate of the group as well. Smoke Harris ($6,800): One of the premier receivers on the slate, Smoke Harris averages 73.4 receiving yards per game on a 26.9% target share. In the Louisiana Tech offense this equates to 8.6 targets per game. Braden Smith ($4,200): Braden Smith ranks second on Cincinnati with 22 targets this year, averaging 49.5 yards per game. He projects as one of the top price-adjusted receivers on the slate. Jamari Thrash ($6,600):  Jamari Thrash is one of the most explosive receivers in college football, averaging 100 yards per game behind a 25.2% target share. With little salary restrictions on this slate, Thrash should be a priority.
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