Sleeper Fantasy NFL Picks & Predictions: Finish Sunday Strong With No-Brainer Matthew Stafford Discount (January 14)

We’re finally here — the NFL playoffs have begun, and man, were there some barnburners on Wild Card Saturday. Well, now we’re on to Wild Card Sunday (minus one postponed game), and we have some real star power to monitor. To add to the fun, Sleeper Fantasy has a great pick on sale to help with your plays today: Matthew Stafford higher/lower than 0.5 passing yards!

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Sleeper Fantasy NFL Picks & Predictions | Wild Card Sunday

If you have only played Sleeper Fantasy’s season-long fantasy leagues, their pick’em contests are some of the toughest but also most rewarding in terms of real cash. All you have to do is guess if a player will go for higher or lower than a projection Sleeper sets, with each pick getting its own payout multiplier. The more picks you hit, the bigger the cash prize, with the chance to get up to 100x your investment! And now we have a sure thing like this Stafford free square, so let’s get into it and build a Sleeper entry.

Matthew Stafford M/L 0.5 Passing Yards

Weather has been a huge theme of the first NFL playoff week — a Steelers-Bills postponement due to snow preceded a Dolphins-Chiefs game that was below zero even without considering windchill. We do not have to factor that in at all here — the Rams will enter the dome to take on the Lions.

Still, even without that weather variance, it’s nice to not have to think about one pick in our entry given that it is notoriously difficult to nail +EV plays with Sleeper. It’s best not to think too hard about a play if we don’t have to, right?

For the sake of our non-new customers who do not have access to this play, you can also grab a Puka Nacua discount — down to 58.5 yards receiving from 79.5. Max entry is $10 if you use this play.

Back to Stafford, if you are a new customer and you use the free square, remember that you need at least one other pick to make a submittable entry. Also, that pick has to be from a team other than the Rams. To finish out this entry, let’s head over to Stokastic’s NFL Bet Pro to find the best +EV option.

Right now that is Jameson Williams less than 3.5 receptions. On the one hand, this play’s multiplier is abysmal at just 1.45x. On the other, it has a massive 74% win expectancy, making it +EV by a whopping 7%. Pairing that with the Stafford play gives us to 2.56x for the entry. However, we need one more since promotional entries require at least a 3x payout. Amon-Ra St. Brown less than 7.5 receptions is next in terms of EV, as this has a mediocre 49% win expectancy but a huge 1.98x multiplier. That gets our full entry to 5.08x and sets us up for a huge payout.

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If you want to boost your payout potential even more, keep adding picks! You will get better acquainted with Sleeper’s payout structure and strategy for building +EV plays as you get more involved, and if you’re looking for more Sleeper promos, check out Stokastic’s breakdown of everything they offer here!

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.

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