Sleeper Fantasy NFL Picks & Predictions: Josh Allen Free Square for All the Marbles (January 7)

This is it — the Bills are playing for their playoff lives tonight, and the Dolphins are trying to officially lock down a division they thought they had sewn up months ago. Bills-Dolphins Sunday Night Football has it all: Stakes, offensive firepower, superstars and, most importantly, one final regular season new customer pick on sale for Sleeper Fantasy’s pick’em contest: Josh Allen more/less than 0.5 passing yards.

If you have only played Sleeper Fantasy’s season-long fantasy leagues, their pick’em contests are super simple to get into. All you have to do is predict whether a player will surpass or fall short of the statistical target set by Sleeper, and the more picks you guess correctly, the bigger the boost to your winnings! Having one of those picks be a sure thing like this Allen free square is the perfect kickstart for Sleeper entries.

And if you don’t have an account, you can claim one of the best offers in the DFS industry: A whopping $500 deposit bonus when you sign up today!

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Sleeper Fantasy NFL Picks & Predictions | Week 18 SNF

Josh Allen M/L 0.5 Passing Yards

The great thing about Sleeper Fantasy is they simplify tough choices for us. According to Stokastic, Allen is projected to throw for 244.0 yards, just a smidge above his non-discounted target of 240.5 yards — that projection shows that this pick could go either way. However, with the new customer discount to 0.5 passing yards, we can confidently start our entries with one of the top quarterbacks without overthinking it — just lock in more than 0.5 yards, sit back and relax.

Well, there is at least one more step. In order to submit this Allen free square, we will need to make at least one more pick since Sleeper requires two for an entry. Let’s head over to Stokastic Pick’em Pro and find another play to finish this thing off. Right now the highest projected ROI from the Dolphins is Tua Tagovailoa less than 1.5 passing touchdowns. Now, this play is modest in terms of expected win rate (50%), but thanks to its solid Sleeper multiplier of 1.89x, it is the best option to pair with the Allen play.

Plus, since we have one pick locked in, we can play a little looser and opt for the better overall payout — these two picks together will net 3.34x if both connect.

If you want to boost your payout potential even more, keep adding picks! You will get better acquainted with Sleeper’s payout structure and strategy for building +EV plays as you get more involved, and if you’re looking for more Sleeper promos, check out Stokastic’s breakdown of everything they offer here!

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.

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