Sleeper Fantasy NFL Picks & Predictions: Start With THIS Chiefs-Bills Free Square (January 21)

Day 1 of the Divisional Round was a — shall we say — interesting slate of games, and the fun isn’t stopping any time soon. After the Lions host the surprising Buccaneers, we get one of the great recent rivalries in Chiefs-Bills, only this time it’s the Bills that get to host. And if that didn’t pique your interest enough, Sleeper Fantasy also has a great pick on sale to help with your SNF plays today: Patrick Mahomes higher/lower than 0.5 passing yards!

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Sleeper Fantasy NFL Picks & Predictions | Chiefs-Bills

If you’re only familiar with Sleeper Fantasy’s season-long fantasy leagues, you need to give their pick’em contests a shot. They are challenging, but they are also lucrative with their real cash rewards. Like most pick’em apps, the job is to predict whether a player will surpass or fall short of Sleeper’s projection. However, Sleeper is different in that each correct pick comes with its own payout multiplier. The more accurate picks you make, the larger the cash prize, providing an opportunity to earn up to 100 times your initial investment!

Patrick Mahomes M/L 0.5 Passing Yards

Is there a more variable passing offense in football than that of the Chiefs? Even before considering the frigid temps expected in Buffalo (not as cold as Kansas City last week, but still), Mahomes’ receivers are so hit or miss that quite literally anything is possible. Were we playing Mahomes to stay under 255.5 yards passing, it would be pretty hairy — Stokastic projects him for 244.9 yards, which is only fifth of the eight quarterbacks in the Divisional Round.

But grateful we are, as Sleeper has blessed us by not making us think one millisecond about Mahomes’ pass catchers.

Let’s lock in that more on 0.5 passing yards to get a late-game entry started right. Now, as we finish this play, remember that we need at least one other pick, and that pick has to be from the Bills. The best way to find one is to head over to Stokastic’s NFL Bet Pro and sort through the +EV options.

Right now the top play is James Cook less than 2.5 receptions. While Cook is projecting for 2.53 receptions and a 48% win expectancy on Stokastic, the less on his receptions has a huge 2.13x multiplier. Rarely do we see picks have that good a payout when they’re within range of being a 50-50 play; as such, it has a 3% projected ROI. Pairing it with the Mahomes sale gets our entry to a 3.77x multiplier, giving us a great chance at winning big!

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If you want to boost your payout potential even more, keep adding picks! You will get better acquainted with Sleeper’s payout structure and strategy for building +EV plays as you get more involved, and if you’re looking for more Sleeper promos, check out Stokastic’s breakdown of everything they offer here!

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.

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