We hit the mid-week portion of our program fresh off last night’s 5.79x cash! There are two more games on the slate for Wednesday, including a possible closeout in Boston. The Celtics are currently 14.5-point home favorites against a broken Cavaliers team. Elsewhere in Oklahoma City, the Thunder look to continue momentum after closing a 14-point gap to tie the series 2-2. Here are tonight’s top Sleeper Fantasy predictions, including a Jaylen Brown pick on sale!
Sleeper Fantasy Predictions Today — NBA Slate
Pick on Sale: Jaylen Brown More Than 0.5 Points
This is our pick on sale for tonight’s action, but we still recommend playing the bottom two picks for a 5x entry.
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Luka Doncic M/L Than 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Consider this a buy-low spot for one of the most prolific players in the NBA; he’s just not healthy. The Mavericks watched the Thunder storm back to tie the series, with another Kyrie Irving disappearance in the process. While P.J. Washington is bound to show some regression, the points + rebounds + assists market allows us to benefit from Doncic impacting multiple areas of the game.
Clearly, the Mavericks need points. Doncic will continue to benefit from a slower pace designated by Dallas to match his current health status. There’s also the passing game that should improve once Irving gets it together, with Irving returning to more of a Game 3 fashion — at least pushing the low 20s. That opens up more passing chances for Doncic but also clears him for more rebounding opportunities. The desperation is in the air for Dallas, especially on the road. We may see a dip in guys around Doncic and Irving, even Washington, so there will be even more pressure for points.
Sleeper Prediction: Luka Doncic MORE Than 45.5 Points + Rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander M/L Than 7.5 Rebounds
This is where it gets complicated. We have a great edge against the market by choosing an option that has yet to hit this series. Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared 7.5 rebounds in four games against the Mavericks, averaging just under 10 a game. None of that is indicative of what happens tonight, as we see a lower total than recent production. The NBA pick’em tool identifies a 4.7% edge with LESS than 7.5 rebounds at +100 odds. Those implied odds at Sleeper beat the -110 true odds.
There are plenty of scenarios that play out where Gilgeous-Alexander finishes with less than 7.5 rebounds. We saw him average just six boards per game during the Pelicans series and even less than that during the regular season. Gilgeous-Alexander is playing well above his typical production on the glass, and Dallas should look to adjust and take advantage of the Thunder aggressively crashing the glass. Most players look at this number combined with recent production and slam the more. We recognize the market edge and likelihood of regression, even with a superstar.
Sleeper Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander LESS Than 7.5 Rebounds
