Sleeper Predictions Today: It’s… Bobby Portis Season?! (April 30)

Three games on tap in the NBA tonight as two are close out scenarios. We have some great value popping on in our Sleeper predictions, and remind you we just hit a 5.4x ticket last night on the OddsShopper YouTube page. Be it the Sixers or Bucks, staving off elimination is the goal, and we have the Magic and Cavs tied 2-2 heading back to Cleveland. If you haven’t signed up for Sleeper – check it out below as this is the next big DFS pick’em site!

Plus, you get tonight’s free square, Jalen Brunson over 0.5 Points.

Looking for more NBA pick’em advice? Check out the rest of our NBA articles or our NBA pick’em tools. Use code SHANDER for a $500 dollar deposit match instantly and tonight’s pick on sale — Jalen Brunson over 0.5 points.

New to Sleeper Fantasy? Get your first deposit matched up to $500!

React App

Sleeper Predictions Today — NBA Slate

Pick on Sale: Jalen Brunson M/L Than 0.5 Points

This is our pick on sale for tonight’s action, but we still recommend playing the bottom two picks for a 5x card.

Khris Middleton M/L Than 7.5 Rebounds

This is it for the Bucks, staring at the brink of elimination without Giannis Atentekoumpo and possibly Damian Lillard. This number for Khris Middleton is rather inflated, nearly three full rebounds above his season average. The loss of Giannis has opened rebound opportunities for Middleton – and others – yet he’s still playing insanely high over his typical average output on the glass. Game 2 was the only one so far that saw him finish below the above total.

We are looking at regression for a guy who has had to do nearly everything just to keep his team down 1-3 in the series. The Bucks saw Bobby Portis ejected last game, and should take some rebounds away from Middleton tonight. The Bucks are going to need other guys to knock down shots, and can’t rely on a ton of shots hoisted just from Middleton. He launched 29 in Game 3 and 22 in Game 4, both resulting in losses.

The Pacers are in a great spot to close out this series, doing it in a faster pace without Giannis on the floor. At this point there’s a better chance Middleton fades back with regression and the return of Portis.

Sleeper Prediction: Khris Middleton LESS Than 7.5 Rebounds

Bobby Portis M/L Than 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

This is an ambitious number for Portis to hit, rather absurd to be sitting at 35.5 PRA. It’s already dropped a full point from 36.5, rightfully so as it took an OT game for Portis to clear this number – falling short in the other three. There’s general belief that he comes back angry or motivated from being ejected in Game 4, but that’s not enough to overcome his failure to hit this number in the first two games. Without Giannis, there’s no guarantee that anyone filling that void is just going to grab a ton of rebounds.

That’s the main focus of this prop, more than anything else it’s rebounds. Portis isn’t turning into Magic Johnson overnight and should be relegated to a typical 1-2 assist output. The Bucks lack of star scoring only limits who Portis can even hit, and as mentioned above, it’s not going to be Middleton every time either. In the first two games of this series Portis finished with 27 PRA, well below the above number. He also failed to hit this in each of the five regular season games against the Pacers.

There’s nothing in Doc Rivers playbook that calls for some immediate adjustment where Portis becomes more of a scoring threat, or gaining a larger advantage on the glass. Play LESS than 35.5 PRA.

Sleeper Prediction: Bobby Portis LESS Than 35.5 PRA


Premium Data

NBA Data Central

FanDuel NBA DFS Ownership

NBA DFS Ownership – Main Slate

NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability

NBA DFS Projections

Yahoo! NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Ownership: Night Slate

NBA DFS Early Slate Ownership

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.