Sleeper Predictions Today: James Harden Special! (May 1)

A new month means a new streak on our Sleeper Fantasy predictions today series, as we’ve been red hot overall on our YouTube series and in this new recurring column. Of course, that does nothing for anyone who tailed last night as we were blown out of the building worse than the Indiana Pacers. Two games on tap tonight as we have a possible close out game in Boston and a major Game 5 in Los Angeles, with the Clippers and Mavericks tied 2-2. Here is your top Sleeper card for tonight’s NBA action!

Plus, you get tonight’s free square, James Harden More Than 0.5 Points

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Sleeper Fantasy Predictions Today — NBA Slate

Pick on Sale: James Harden M/L Than 0.5 Points

This is our pick on sale for tonight’s action, but we still recommend playing the bottom two picks for a 5x card.

Norman Powell M/L Than 11.5 Points

The confirmed loss of Kawhi Leonard for Game 5 will significantly hurt the Clippers chances of winning, even at home. One thing we do know that should correlate is an increase of playing time, and shot volume for Norman Powell. While he’s only cleared this number once, we’ve seen significant improvement from an overall performance standpoint over the past two games – both on the road. That’s a massive sign for a guy who should continue to see 30+ minutes on the floor, especially with the Clippers running a tight rotation off the bench.

Powell returns home with the rest of his club as they should enjoy more of a home court advantage. The Mavericks haven’t been great defensively guarding the back court, namely against guards, which should also help propel Powell over the above total. We should expect 10+ shots from Powell and half of those coming from deep. That’s a solid recipe in getting to 12 points if he can continue exploiting this matchup.

Sleeper Prediction: Norman Powell MORE Than 11.5 Points

Dereck Lively II M/L Than 7.5 Points

This is a smaller market play on a guy who just isn’t asked to score a bunch of points. This game between LA and Dallas should see some overall struggles on offense, without Kawhi Leonard and Luka Doncic not 100 percent. The Mavericks center has played into a typical postseason narrative where role players simply play better at home versus on the road. That, along with this matchup against the front court – Ivica Zubac – hasn’t changed either.

In the two road games, Lively II finished below this posted total. He was able to clear both times at home, but with the series shifting back to Dallas, it gets harder for guys in his position to thrive. Even with Doncic slowed down, the scoring load lies clearly on Kyrie Irving’s shoulders, and about four other guys before Lively is an option. He hasn’t been able to establish any consistent advantage on the glass, which may keep his scoring down with limited offensive chances on the glass.

The OddsShopper pick’em tool has identified a small edge against the market with this play. The implied odds on Sleeper are -132 for the LESS than 7.5 points, which narrowly beats the -133 true odds. Even a small but positive edge is valuable over time.

Sleeper Prediction: Dereck Lively II LESS Than 7.5 Points


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