UFC DFS Picks: Finding Value in UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs. Imavov

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov is the appetizer for next week’s pay-per-view, but we get a great chance to make money to build our bankrolls of that event. It’s time to provide our UFC DFS picks ahead of the event.

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Themba Gorimbo – $9200

Despite a setback in his UFC debut against AJ Fletcher in February 2023, Themba Gorimbo bounced back impressively with a unanimous decision victory over Takashi Sato a few months later. Now, seven months after his last appearance, Gorimbo steps back into the octagon to face Pete Rodriguez.

With odds hovering around 50% for a finish inside the distance, Gorimbo presents a compelling option for DFS players. The early finish of Rodriguez by Jack Della Maddalena in late 2022 underscores Gorimbo’s potential, especially considering the fight’s high finish probability and its status as the card’s likely shortest.

Despite being priced below two other fighters, Gorimbo’s value seems understated, making him a solid pick for this event.

Renato Moicano – $8400

Renato Moicano returns from a substantial hiatus since his first-round victory over Brad Riddell in November 2022. Facing Drew Dober, who has remained active with two wins and a loss in the interval, Moicano confronts a challenging comeback.

With Ultimate Fight Night here, featuring a great co-main event, it's time to provide our UFC DFS picks. Themba Gorimbo and Roman Dolidze...
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The intriguing dynamics of their match-up, reflected in the betting odds, suggest an early conclusion, albeit with the method remaining uncertain. While Dober poses a threat with his striking, Moicano’s ground game could prove decisive. Our UFC Top Stacks tool highlights Moicano’s high finish probability, paired with a surprisingly affordable $8400 price tag.

Given the risks and rewards, Moicano stands out as potentially the best value play of the card.

GPP Flier: Roman Dolidze – $7600

For those looking to take a chance on an underdog, Roman Dolidze offers an intriguing choice in the main event. After an 11-month layoff following a contentious defeat to Marvin Vettori in March 2023, Dolidze faces a situation somewhat akin to the Moicano/Dober bout.

Both fighters will be hunting for a finish, with Dolidze having a slight edge on the ground and Imavov favoring a knockout victory. Aiming for a finish is key, but Dolidze benefits from the main event’s extended format, providing additional opportunities to secure a submission over the allotted 25 minutes.

As the underdog with the highest odds for a finish, Dolidze is a standout GPP pick, offering both value and the potential for significant points.

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Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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