Welcome to the Tuesday edition of our Underdog Fantasy NBA picks. Today marks the final day of NBA in-season tournament group play, with the knock-out round starting next week. Twelve teams have already been eliminated from the knock-out round, while the Lakers and Pacers are the only teams to have clinched group play, finishing with 4-0 records.
We have an 8-game slate tonight that tips off with the Bulls-Celtics at 7:30 PM ET and ends with Draymond Green returning from his five-game suspension for Warriors-Kings at 10:00 PM ET. Let’s get to our picks and win some money!
The NBA can be confusing to navigate with so many players questionable and or sitting out so let’s find some plus EV plays and win some money! Please take advantage of our Underdog Fantasy promo: Get your first deposit DOUBLED on Underdog up to $100!
Underdog NBA Fantasy Picks & Predictions
Jayson Tatum H/L 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Jayson Tatum and the Celtics are 13.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bulls, who rank in the bottom five in opponent 3PM, assists, and rebounds. The Bulls are the slowest team in the NBA but rank 21st in defensive rating.
Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are both listed as questionable for tonight (I expect both to play), while Kristaps Porzingis will be out for at least another week with a calf injury. With Porzingis off the court, Tatum’s usage rate jumps from 30% to 35%. Though it’s a small sample size, Tatum is averaging 45 PRA without Porzingis in the two games he’s missed this season. A majority of other operators have this at 42.5, giving the underdog prop some good value. Boston needs to win this game to advance to the knockout round of the in-season tournament, so I expect Tatum to play 35+ minutes.
Best Underdog NBA Fantasy Play: Jayson Tatum Higher Than 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
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Brandon Miller H/L 4.5 Rebounds
Brandon Miller has started eight games this season and is expected to get another start tonight against the Knicks. LaMelo Ball is expected to miss tonight’s game after leaving early on Sunday due to an ankle injury. The Hornets are 12-point road underdogs in New York.
Miller is averaging 4.1 rebounds on the season and finds himself in a tough matchup tonight. The Knicks are the best rebounding team in the NBA, holding opponents to just 40.4 rebounds per game. More specifically, they allow the seventh fewest rebounds to forwards. This is a major pace-down spot for Charlotte, especially without LaMelo Ball playing.
Best Underdog NBA Fantasy Play: Brandon Miller Lower than 4.5 Rebounds
Alperen Sengun H/L 30.5 Points + Rebounds
Alperen Sengun gets a favorable matchup against the Dallas Mavericks tonight. Houston is a 4-point road underdog with a healthy 230 total. This is a pace-up spot against a Dallas team that runs five more possessions per game than Houston. Sengun ranks seventh in points in the paint (PIP) with 13.7 per game and gets the poor interior defense of Dallas, who allow the third most PIP in the NBA.
Dallas ranks in the bottom five in opponent rebounds and defensive rating. Sengun is averaging 32.2 points + rebounds over his last five games, and in a great matchup, he adds to that and goes even higher tonight.
Best Underdog NBA Fantasy Play: Alperen Sengun Higher Than 30.5 Points + Rebounds
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