We get a nice 4-game night slate that features a lot of top-tier skaters. The values are tough for me tonight, but there are about a dozen high-priced skaters in good spots tonight, so we’ll look at Awesemo’s rankings and try to identify who might be in the best of the best spots. As usual, I (Jake Hari/Tommienation1) will follow up with some additional analysis.
Top-Tier
Tyler Seguin ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD)
“The Stars’ slate-leading implied goal total (over 3.5) suits their top-line center well, as he will take on a putrid Canucks team at home tonight.”
Seguin is possibly the top cash-game option on the slate tonight and a very scary tournament fade. This month, he has a 23.5 individual Corsi For per 60 minutes and 18.1 individual Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes, both of which are amongst the best numbers for any skater on this slate. The Canucks’ have been awful on both ends of the ice, but are allowing the 6th-most Scoring Chances per 60 minutes since the start of March and have been short-handed the 2nd-most times this year. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Seguin and his linemates don’t dominate possession and produce goals in this game.
Rickard Rakell ($7,000 DK/$7,200 FD)
“Rakell’s role as a top-line winger means he should see a lot of the high-paced Connor McDavid line, and despite being on the road, the Ducks are expected to score almost three goals tonight.”
If Ryan Getzlaf is able to go tonight, Rakell becomes an even better play, because as Awesemo mentioned, he’ll see the McDavid line at even-strength. McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Rattie have allowed over 13 High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes, while the Rakell line has created over 13 themselves. The numbers are in Rakell’s favor, and he should have no problem with shot volume at even-strength or against the league’s worst home penalty-kill.
Values
Sam Gagner ($3,500 DK/$4,100 FD)
“Gagner played 20 minutes in the Canucks’ last game, and if he sees that kind of ice time tonight, he’s a nice value on both sites playing on the top power-play as well.”
As mentioned in the Stacks article, the Stars’ top line does not do a great job limiting opponents’ shots and scoring chances. Gagner could be a beneficiary tonight even in a game where the Canucks could get fleeced defensively. For only $3,500 on DK, playing on the top-line and top power-play, and shooting a lot lately (19.4 iCF/60 in March), Gagner is an “A” value and one of the best values on the board.
Esa Lindell ($3,500 DK/$3,800 FD)
“Lindell plays big minutes on the top pairing with John Klingberg, and anyone who will be on the ice a substantial amount of time for a team that has a massive team total will get our attention at this price.”
Lindell hasn’t been shooting a lot lately, but he does get power-play time on the second unit, and correlates well to the top Dallas line because he and Klingberg spend a lot of their even-strength ice time with them. It’s tough enough to try to jam in an expensive line, so if you can’t get up to Klingberg, Lindell is a “B” value on DraftKings that will see a bunch of ice time with them.
