Pricing is mostly pretty soft on DraftKings tonight, with a bunch of studs that you want to play, and a lot of value to make it work. I like this slate a lot, even though it’s one of the toughest times I’ve had all year getting down to one lineup that I like. Here are some guys that both Awesemo and I agree on in terms of raw points and/or value. Awesemo will be quoted first, and then I (Jake Hari/Tommienation1) will follow up with some more analysis.
Top-Tier
Connor McDavid ($7,600 DK/ $9,100 FD)
“McDavid’s even-strength matchup against the Blue Jackets’ top line should result in a lot of shots and scoring chances, despite his teams’ 2.5 implied goal total.”
As an “A” points grade, McDavid is one of the best spend-up options on the slate, as he’s been playing great with his new linemates, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ty Rattie. He should see a favorable matchup against CBJ1, which allows 27.8 Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes (SCA/60) and 12.8 High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) at even-strength. McDavid will of course play on the top power-play for the Oilers, so this is a spot where he can keep his hot streak going (9 points in three games).
Jason Zucker ($5,800 DK/$6,200 FD)
“Zucker is on the road in what looks like a tough matchup against the Predators, but individually, he’s got a sneaky-good matchup and he’s been creating a ton of chances lately.”
Over Minnesota’s last five games, Zucker (“B” points grade) leads the team in shot attempts (29), Scoring Chances (16), and High-Danger Chances (9). Tonight, he and his linemates should see healthy dose of the Ryan Johansen line for the Predators, which allows over 12 HDCA/60 and 27.8 SCA/60. That matchup should play into Zucker’s favor at even-strength, and the Predators have the most Times Short-Handed this season, so he may have multiple opportunities to contribute on the power-play as well.
Seth Jones ($6,000 DK/$6,100 FD)
“Jones should eat up a ton of minutes tonight on the road against Connor McDavid and the Oilers. He could see near 25 minutes including power-play time, and he’s one of the highest-volume shooters in the NHL this year.”
Jones is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s game, so make sure he is playing if you slot him into your lineup, but assuming he goes, he’s one of the top defensemen in all formats. He has 52 shots attempts over his last 7 games, a clip that is actually on the low end of what he’s been doing over the last couple months. However, for $6K in a great matchup against the Oilers’ 63% home penalty-kill, assuming health, Jones (“A” points grade) is the one defenseman on this slate that I’m very comfortable paying up for tonight.
Values
Cody Ceci ($3,800 DK/$3,800 FD)
“Ceci is playing over 25 minutes per game over his last five, and assuming he gets that tonight, he should be able to rack up points with the Senators’ 3.3 implied total.”
Looking at Ceci’s minutes played over his last few games, it’s impressive how many minutes he’s been eating up. Granted, that probably has something to do with Erik Karlsson’s absence, and we still don’t know his status for tonight, but either way, over 25 minutes per game in a 6.5 total is hard to fade at this price. He’s not bashful about shooting (22 shot attempts in those five games), and he gets power-play time. For under $4k on both sites, Ceci is a fantastic value play tonight.
Miles Wood ($2,900 DK/$4,000 FD)
“Wood slots into a top-6 role after missing over a week due to an upper body injury. While Carolina doesn’t commit a lot of penalties, Wood will play on the top power-play, and the Devils have one of the highest team totals on the night.”
Wood is one of the few fowards on the slate tonight in his price range on DraftKings that should get around 15 minutes of ice time, as well as top power-play time. While Carolina doesn’t commit a lot of penalties like Awesemo says, when they do commit them, they only own a 77.9% penalty-kill. If you need a mega-punt on DraftKings, Wood (“B” DK value) makes for nice punt, as he has an 18.7 individual Corsi For per 60 minutes this year, which we love to see.
