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Best MLB Bets Today (7/16): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer



It’s Saturday, July 16th and like most Saturdays, we have baseball all day! This slate today is slanted towards afternoon games with just five games happening after 7:00 pm Eastern Time. This slate comes right out the gates with three exciting matchups: White Sox – Twins, Reds – Cardinals, and Mets-Cubs all in that 2:00 pm Eastern hour. There is a Coors Field game at 3:00 pm Eastern between two gas can pitchers. In the later afternoon, there is the debut of Max Meyer, a pitcher I have been watching in in the minors all season as the Marlins take on the Phillies. Later tonight we have a few awesome matchups with the Brewers and Giants along with the Red Sox and Yankees. Not to mention, we will see some studs on the mound today with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Max Fried, Logan Gilbert, and Lance Lynn all expected to pitch today. With all the games going on, it can be difficult to prioritize the best MLB bets today.

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OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are three strikeout props and two home run props — our best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Justin Verlander O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Justin Verlander is pitching to the Oakland A’s today. Verlander has a 24.6% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.95 strikeouts per inning. To strike out seven batters, he would have to pitch around 7.1 innings on average to reach that expectation. There are strikeouts in Oakland’s bats; they have the seventh highest strikeout rate against RHP in baseball. That said, Verlander is still an effective pitcher but not the pitcher we have seen in the past. He has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in just six out of 16 starts so far this season. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Verlander a 54% chance of staying under the total, giving the bet an 18% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Marcus Stroman O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | Claim YOUR $200 FREE at BetMGM

Marcus Stroman will pitch to the New York Mets today. Stroman has a 22.5% strikeout rate this season and averages 0.94 strikeouts per inning. Both the strikeout rate and strikeouts per inning are career highs for Stroman. Although the Mets have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, Stroman is putting up Verlander numbers this year, and we would expect Verlander to get to four or more strikeouts against the Mets easily. In 10 starts, Stroman has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in six of them. OddsShopper projects Stroman for 4.7 strikeouts today and this bet has a 68% chance of winning.

Best MLB Pick Today: Marcus Stroman OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)

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Spencer Torkelson To Hit A Home Run

Spencer Torkelson was one of the best bets last night and he is back on the list again with the best prop bet of the day. The Tigers face Cal Quantrill today, who allows 1.14 HR/9 on the season. Torkelson was talked about extensively in the last article; he has a power profile that has been seen in the minors but not in the majors. He has more power potential than his .100 ISO shows. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 14% chance of hitting a home run while the +850 odds imply a 10.5% chance, giving this bet a 37% expected ROI.

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Best MLB Pick Today: Spencer Torkelson To Hit A Home Run (+850)

Jared Koenig O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | Claim YOUR $200 FREE at BETMGM

Jared Koenig will have the daunting task of taking on the Houston Astros lineup today. In four major league starts, Koenig has an 11.1% strikeout rate, a 12.2% walk rate, and a 6.18 xFIP. He also has averaged 0.55 strikeouts per inning, meaning that it would take on average 7.1 innings pitched to reach four strikeouts. In those four starts, he has pitched four innings three times and 5.2 innings once. Given his terrible metrics across the board, it is highly unlikely he makes it long enough in this game to get four strikeouts.

Best MLB Pick Today: Jared Koenig UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-148)

Jesus Sanchez O/U 0.5 Home Runs

Jesus Sanchez will take on the likes of Ranger Suarez and the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen tonight. Sanchez has 11 home runs on the year with a .181 ISO overall. Suarez allows 1.03 HR/9 this season as well. According to OddsShopper, this bet has a 32% expected ROI making it a good bet to make.

Best MLB Pick Today: Jesus Sanchez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800)

Daulton Varsho To Hit A Home Run | Claim YOUR $200 FREE at BetMGM

Daulton Varsho will see Sean Manaea on the mound tonight. Varsho has 12 home runs and a .178 ISO this season. The Stokastic MLB Betting Model gives Varsho a 14% chance of hitting a home run while the +800 odds imply an 11.1% chance of hitting a home run, giving this bet a 29% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Daulton Varsho To Hit A Home Run (+800)

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