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Best MLB Bets Today (7/30): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer

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It’s Saturday, July 30th, 2022 and Saturdays generally bring us a full slate of MLB games spread throughout the day! We have 15 games in total, starting as early as 1:10 pm Eastern and as late as 9:07 pm Eastern tonight. Mariners-Astros and Twins-Padres feature the two most competitive games in terms of likely playoff teams playing each other with good pitching matchups. Tyler Mahle will pitch in Cincinnati tonight but is a name heavily rumored to be traded prior to the August 2nd trade deadline. Juan Soto and the Washington Nationals will play the Saint Louis Cardinals on FOX tonight as baseball fans wonder how long they will see Soto in a Nationals jersey as well. With so much going on, OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making MLB bets today. Below are three strikeout props, two home run props and one total bases prop — the best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.


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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Tyler Mahle O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE (0ffer ends 7/31)

Tyler Mahle, in what could be his last start in Cincinnati, take on the Baltimore Orioles tonight, bringing a 25.6% strikeout rate and 1.09 strikeout average per inning to the mound. On average, it would take 5.2 innings pitched to reach six strikeouts for Mahle. Baltimore is tied with Minnesota for the 14th-highest strikeout rate against RHPs, so this will be a neutral matchup for Mahle in that it won’t be a huge strikeout boost. But there are still plenty of strikeouts in the lineup. In eight of his last ten starts, Mahle has gone 5.2 innings or more. In six of his last ten starts, he has had six or more strikeouts.

The Pick: Tyler Mahle OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Framber Valdez O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE (0ffer ends 7/31)

Framber Valdez faces the Seattle Mariners tonight, in a home matchup a Minute Maid Park. Valdez has a 22.1% strikeout rate and strikes out 0.90 batters per inning and is coming off a start against Seattle where he had eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings pitched. Seattle’s strikeout rate to lefties on average is 23.6% and they struck out at a 28.6% clip in that game. With Seattle facing Valdez again, there is a chance the strikeout numbers come down a bit closer to Seattle’s strikeout rate against LHP on the season. Valdez has also gone six or more innings in 16 straight starts. If he goes six innings, he will strike out five batters more often than six batters. This is a coin flip that will pay +120 if Valdez goes under.

Best MLB Pick Today: Framber Valdez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)


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Darin Ruf To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE (offer ends 7/31)

Darin Ruf and the San Francisco Giants will see Drew Smyly on the mound when they play the Chicago Cubs tonight. Ruff has elite splits against LHP, with a .389 wOBA and a .280 ISO. Smyly allows 1.47 HR/9, which makes the right-handed power bats in the Giants lineup intriguing tonight from a prop betting and DFS perspective. Don’t be misled by the .220 batting average and .160 ISO overall. Ruf is an elite option tonight as long as Smyly is on the mound.

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Best MLB Pick Today: Darin Ruf To Hit A Home Run (+450)

Ranger Suarez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE (offer ends 7/31)

Ranger Suarez will pitch to the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. Suarez has an 18.8% strikeout rate and averages 0.81 strikeouts per inning on the season. The Pittsburgh Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers with a 26.2% strikeout rate. This is an elite strikeout matchup for Suarez, despite the fact that Suarez has not been a big strikeout pitcher this season. On average, it would take Suarez 6.1 innings pitched to reach five strikeouts. This is an above-average matchup and Suarez last season struck out over one batter per inning. Miami is a team that strikes out to lefties as often as the Pirates and Suarez struck out four batters in five innings. Had he gone six, it is likely he would have had five strikeouts. If Suarez makes it more than five innings tonight, there is a strong chance he strikes out five batters tonight.

The MLB Best Bet: Ranger Suarez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Juan Soto To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE (offer ends 7/31)
Juan Soto O/U 0.5 Total Bases

Juan Soto will see Dakota Hudson on the mound tonight. Hudson has allowed just 0.65 HR/9 but has a hard-hit allowed rate of 43.7%. Soto has a .234 ISO this season overall, .274 against RHP this season. Seeing Soto at +600 is a surprise and something a bettor should jump on right away before it goes off the board. With a .410 wOBA against RHP, seeing the total bases set to just 0.5 is also a surprise as well. Even though there is some juice there, a normal bet on the total bases and a small bet on the home run are recommended.

The Betting Pick: Juan Soto To Hit A Home Run (+600); Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-165)


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