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Best MLB Bets Today (6/17): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer

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There are 16 games for Friday, June 17, including a double header between the Phillies and Nationals. Some exciting pitchers are going today, including Shane Baz pitching to the Orioles, Carlos Rodon to the Pirates, MacKenzie Gore getting tested in Coors field, and Lucas Giolito and Framber Valdez dueling in Houston. Will this also be a weekend where young potential superstar Oneil Cruz gets called up?

There is a ton of MLB action today, and OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips for making MLB predictions for today, Friday, June 17. Below are two strikeout props, two home run props and two total bases props for the best MLB prop bets today.


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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Shane Baz O/U 4.5 Strikeouts

Shane Baz is pitching to the lowly Baltimore Orioles tonight, hoping to get on track for this season. The highly touted prospect struggled in his first major league start coming back from injury, giving up five runs in 2.1 innings with just two strikeouts. Last year in Triple-A, he averaged 1.39 strikeouts per inning; it has translated to 1.35 strikeouts per inning in in just 13.1 innings the major leagues. Baz averaged 1.54 strikeouts per inning in his rehab starts in Triple-A. In addition to his track record of being a high-strikeout pitcher, the good news is that his velocity on his four-seam fastball and his slider are within 1 mph from last year.

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Baltimore has the seventh-highest strikeout rate at 23.7%, making this is a spot for Baz to bounce back. The issue is pitch count here; in the minor leagues, he did not go more than 4.1 innings. If he were guaranteed to go five or more, the over would make sense. Because he could very well go less than five innings, the under is better in just his second major league start this year. OddsShopper gives the under a 79% chance of winning with a 45% expected ROI, the best strikeout prop of the day.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Shane Baz UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)


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Lucas Giolito O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

Lucas Giolito pitches to the Houston Astros tonight, and he has a 30.7% strikeout rate and is averaging 1.31 strikeouts per inning. Houston is tied for the fourth-lowest strikeout rate at 19.8%, making it a tougher matchup for strikeouts. Even with the tougher matchup, Giolito’s strikeout rate is so high that this prop is a little too low, even in a tough matchup. Against Boston, a team with a 20.7% strikeout rate, Giolito struck out seven batters in six innings. He has gone over this total in 8 of his 10 starts this season. OddsShopper gives Giolito a 67% chance of going over 5.5 strikeouts and an expected ROI of 37%. Do not be surprised if this prop gets set to 6.5 strikeouts later in the day, and in that case, the bet would be a stay-away, as his median projection is 6.6 strikeouts.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Lucas Giolito OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)


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Kyle Tucker O/U 0.5 Home Runs
Kyle Tucker O/U 0.5 Total Bases

It is a bit odd to tout Giolito and then also tout one of his opponents to hit a home run. However, one hole in Giolito’s game is he is allowing 1.86 HR/9. OddsShopper’s model gives Kyle Tucker a 21% chance of hitting a home run, and the +610 implied odds lead to a 47% expected ROI on this bet, making it the best prop bet of the entire slate. If some added juice is not an issue, his total base prop is also too low.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Kyle Tucker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+610); Kyle Tucker OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-184)


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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O/U 0.5 Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O/U 1.5 Total Bases

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays are taking on Jordan Montgomery and the New York Yankees. Montgomery is a solid pitcher; he has only allowed 0.81 HR/9 this year and 1.13 HR/9 in his career. He is far from a gas can, but Guerrero hits left-handed pitcher so well. On the season, he has a .375 ISO against left-handed pitchers. OddsShopper gives him a 24% chance of hitting a home run, while the +500 odds give this bet an expected ROI of 42%. Because Montgomery has kept the ball in the ballpark, the over on his total bases prop is also viable tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500); Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+118)


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