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Best MLB Bets Today (5/28): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer



Daily fantasy baseball advice from Awesemo MLB DFS Picks Strategy Show for DraftKings and FanDuel picks on 5/14/22

It is Saturday and we are back with another baseball prop betting picks article. On this slate, we have some day games, some late afternoon/early evening games, some night games, and a late-night game. Today’s MLB picks will be primarily focused on the afternoon and evening games. There are some fun matchups today, such as the White Sox vs. Cubs and Angels vs. Blue Jays. We have some top-notch pitchers taking the mound today, such as Shane Bieber going against Detroit and Jose Musgrove going against his old team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gerrit Cole dueling Corey Kluber should be a lot of fun, too. Being a holiday weekend and no NBA today, more eyes will, undoubtedly, be on baseball, which should draw more bettors wanting to get action down on the games. To help sort things out, OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips when it comes to making MLB predictions for today, Saturday, May 28. Below, one will find three strikeout props and one home run prop for the best MLB prop bets today.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Shane Bieber O/U 6.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Shane Bieber faces the Detroit Tigers tonight. The Tigers have the eighth-highest strikeout rate (24.1%), have the lowest ISO in baseball (0.99) and have scored the fewest runs in the league, making them a solid team to target for strikeout props. Bieber has the lowest strikeout rate of his career thus far at 24.1% (career rate is 30.4%). Nevertheless, even for a “down” year, Bieber is striking out one batter per inning. Facing a team with a higher-than-average-strikeout rate, he should see a boost in K’s tonight. Bieber has thrown over 100 pitches in four of his last five starts, including his last start, which was against Detroit. In that game, he went seven innings and struck out 10 batters. Seven or eight strikeouts is a reasonable projection and for that reason the over makes for a good bet.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Shane Bieber OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)

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Tony Gonsolin O/U 4.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Tony Gonsolin will take the mound in Arizona facing a Diamondbacks team with the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 25%. Gonsolin has a 24.3% strikeout rate this season, in line with his career mark of 25.3%. He is averaging 0.95 strikeouts per inning, and would need to eclipse about 5.1 innings to go over the total. On May 16, his previous start against Arizona, he pitched six innings and struck out seven batters. He has gone over this total in five starts in a row. Given he is facing a team with such a high strikeout rate, this line is too low.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Tony Gonsolin OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

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Patrick Wisdom O/U 0.5 Home Runs (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM

Patrick Wisdom faces Johnny Cueto and the Chicago White Sox in a crosstown rivalry. Cueto has pitched well in his two starts this season. He has a 0.00 ERA with a 3.31 xFIP and a 26.1% strikeout rate to start. Given his last three season’s HR/9 has been 1.69, 1.28 and 1.18, some regression is going to come Cueto’s way, especially at the age of 36. Wisdom is not hitting the ball often (.280 OBP), but when he is, it is going far (.266 ISO). Of his 31 hits, 10 have been home runs. There’s a chance he goes 0-for-4 tonight, but there’s also a solid chance that if he connects, it’s leaving the yard.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Patrick Wisdom OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+530)

Jose Urquidy O/U 4.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Jose Urquidy is going against the Seattle Mariners in Seattle in the late-night game of the day. Seattle has the 15th-highest strikeout rate at 22.4% — the median team in the league. Urquidy has just a 17.1% strikeout rate this season, lower than his 20.1% career rate, and striking out an average of 0.74 batters per inning. Urquidy is also allowing a career-worst 1.56 HR/9 and 48.9% hard-hit rate. Seattle has the 15th-highest ISO and the 19th-most runs scored this season, meaning it is an average offense, but good enough to make a struggling pitcher pay. In April, Urquidy went four innings, allowed six runs, and had just two strikeouts against Seattle. Even if he pitches better, at his season rate, he would have to go seven innings to reach five K’s. He is coming off a 6.2-inning, 10-strikeout game against Texas, but that appears to be an outlier given his statistics, and we should see some regression back to his averages in this start.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Jose Urquidy UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)

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