NRFI picks are back with a full slate of action on a Tuesday, and last night was a full 3-0 sweep. Let’s get it right back with some action tonight. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Tuesday, Aug. 9.
Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets 8/9
Braves at Red Sox Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
This bet is playing the number in Boston, as the gap between yes and no run first inning is certainly not as wide as the 60 points at BetMGM would indicate. The books are weighing this on the pitching matchup, but the better approach here is looking at how poorly both teams have recently performed in the first inning. Both Charlie Morton and Rich Hill carry ERAs north of 4.00, and Morton has the lower WHIP at 1.20. Neither are anything close to being described as lights out on the mound, but they only need to get through one inning before melting down. Morton faces a Red Sox team that averages just 0.34 runs per first inning (RPFI) at home — fourth worst in all of baseball. Morton hasn’t given up a first inning run in two straight road starts, and while Hill is a little more hit and miss, he’s been OK at home.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Braves at Red Sox NRFI (+115 BetMGM)
Marlins at Phillies Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
The pitching matchup here is the best angle to bet, specifically who the Marlins are sending to counter Zack Wheeler and the red-hot Phillies bats. It won’t be easy for Braxton Garrett, but the hard-throwing lefty has been the victim of little run support more than anything else. Still, with a 1.16 WHIP, 3.88 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate, Garrett has a good shot at keeping the Phillies bats silent for the first inning. Wheeler has been outstanding and has dropped his WHIP to 1.01, and he carries a 27% strikeout rate against a Miami team that only scores 0.26 RPFI on the road. Garrett will carry this bet since Wheeler should cruise, but either way, the pitchers are the play in Philadelphia.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Marlins at Phillies NRFI (-130 BetMGM)
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Reds at Mets Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
This was one of the three winners from last night. It is the same situation for the Mets, taking on a worse pitcher combined with the success they have at home. After plating two runs in last night’s opening frame, the Mets average a league-best 0.83 RPFI at home. This number has gone up on average, and the Mets face Mike Minor, who has been brutal. The Reds will try and sneak one by Carlos Carrasco, who, despite a strong ERA, has a shaky WHIP at 1.28 on the year. It’s a small angle but clearly not the biggest one. Minor has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he gives up runs like it’s his job. That is not a great combination against the Mets, who own the first inning at Citi Field.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Reds at Mets YRFI (-115 BetMGM)
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