A full slate of weekend action begins early on this Saturday just after 1pm on the east coast. But it’s the later action that should provide some better value with more time for adjustments. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for tonight’s action with the best NRFI bets for Saturday, July 30.
Best NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Picks 7/30
Mets vs. Marlins Pick | Claim $200 FREE EXPIRES TOMORROW at BetMGM
This is the best opportunity to attack the Mets in the first inning as they surrender a ridiculous .73 runs per first inning (RPFI) on the road. They just saw Miami plate three runs in last night’s opening frame, and are hoping Carlos Carrasco can alter a bad season long trend for the Mets. As for scoring, New York isn’t exactly stellar away from Citi Field, averaging .41 RPFI on the road. The crux of this bet comes down to Carrasco out pitching the Mets first inning trend and Miami escaping the first unharmed with Nick Neidert on the hill. The Fish just recalled Neidert from Triple-A and is expected to fill in for an injured Trevor Rogers. Miami is good at home, limiting opposing RPFI to just .39 RPFI in South Beach.
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Best NRFI Bet Today: Mets vs. Marlins NRFI (-125 FanDuel)
Brewers vs Red Sox Pick | Claim $200 FREE EXPIRES TOMORROW at BetMGM
The difficulty in these plays usually lies in having only one pitcher that’s either good or bad enough to count on, while balancing the variance of the other arm. Thankfully that’s not the case here tonight in Boston. Eric Lauer will go up against Nick Pivetta and while both have above average K rates (Lauer at 24.6% and Pivetta at 23%) neither has found a true groove in recent outings. Lauer has been up and down over his last ten starts with plenty of variance, and Pivetta has struggled over the past month of starts. Both teams also score a lot of runs, and the Sox give up .65 RPFI in Boston – tied for second worst in all of baseball. Any YRFI play is always about scoring chances and there should be at least one for each team tonight.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Brewers vs. Red Sox YRFI (-125 BetMGM)
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Phillies vs. Pirates Pick | Claim $200 FREE EXPIRES TOMORROW at BetMGM
The Phillies send lefty Ranger Suarez to the mound in a favorable matchup against the Pirates bats. It’s been a true struggle against lefthanders this season for Pittsburgh, and while Suarez has been average at best, he poses a strong threat to notch six to seven K’s. The Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller who has been surprisingly good in limiting opposing runs over his last three starts. Don’t expect any Kyle Schwarber solo shot to lead off the game against Keller, and Suarez may not get touched in the first. Philly only gives up .37 RPFI while on the road, and this matchup alone should solidify that part of the play. As for Keller and the Pirates, the Phillies only manage .31 RPFI on the road.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Phillies vs. Pirates NRFI (-140 BetMGM)
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