The Western Conference Finals begin on Wednesday night with Game 1 between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. To say that this is a surprising matchup would be a bit of an understatement. Despite the fact that the Mavericks won three of four regular-season meetings between the teams, oddsmakers have installed the Warriors as a hefty favorite to win this series and advance to the NBA Finals. Given the personnel on both teams, one would have to believe that 3-point shooting and quality defensive play will be two hallmarks of this series. In addition to betting on the Game 1 lines themselves, the NBA player props market offers bettors several chances to turn a profit on prop bets today.
Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.
Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today
Maxi Kleber O/U 4.5 Rebounds (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)
One of several 3-and-D options that Mavericks coach Jason Kidd has at his disposal, Maxi Kleber has stepped up with big games on numerous occasions in these playoffs. While his ability to space the floor offensively has been vital at times, it should not be lost on bettors that Kleber also brings plenty of size at 6’10”. Despite only averaging 24.6 minutes per game over the course of the full season, the 30-year-old was able to reel in 5.9 rebounds per contest. Thus, the NBA prop bets total of 4.5 boards displayed by OddsShopper comes in over one full rebound below Kleber’s usual production.
After grabbing four rebounds in 21 minutes of action in the Mavs’ Game 7 rout of Phoenix, Kleber has now finished with no fewer than four boards in four consecutive games. Add in his First Round stats and Kleber has successfully cleared the NBA player props total in seven of Dallas’ playoff games to date. Thanks to a lack of quality big men, the Warriors are known for playing small. While this typically forces opponents to also downsize in order to match up, Kleber moves well defensively and on the open floor compared to most players that height. One has to imagine that he will be able to make an impact on the glass both tonight and throughout the Western Conference Finals.
Given the perception that 4.5 rebounds represent a buy-low opportunity, it is no surprise that OddsShopper indicates that the odds are juiced to the over on this prop across the NBA betting market. The juice is so hefty in some spots that the optimal price point of -140 yields an advantage of up to 20 cents. Even with the need to lay some extra juice, betting Kleber over his rebound total is one of Awesemo’s favorite bets for Game 1 tonight. An exact projection of 6.76 boards translates to a massive 80% win probability for this over prediction. At the preferred odds, this wager is deemed to have a hefty 38% expected ROI value.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Maxi Kleber OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-140, DraftKings)
Draymond Green O/U 6.5 Assists (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)
Even at age 32, Draymond Green continues to serve as the heart and soul of a revitalized Warriors franchise. After missing out on the NBA Playoffs entirely in each of the past two seasons following a run of five straight trips to The Finals, Golden State is once again on the brink of playing for a title. Green only played 46 games during the regular season and has struggled for the most part offensively in these playoffs. However, he continues to make an impact on the defensive end and fill up the stat sheet in other ways, including as a distributor.
In the Warriors’ first 11 games of these playoffs, Green has distributed at least six assists eight times. Furthermore, he has totaled no less than five dimes in every game aside from the one in which he got ejected last round against Memphis. Taking these facts into consideration, it makes sense that OddsShopper shows most sportsbooks being juiced to the over on his NBA player props line of 6.5 helpers for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. While Green has consistently dished out a half dozen assists in the playoffs, he has actually only surpassed the prop total five times.
Knowing how strong the Mavericks are at the defensive end, achieving the seven assists needed to clear the NBA prop bets threshold may be easier said than done for Green tonight. Awesemo has him pegged to finish with exactly 6.51 helpers in Game 1. While this produces very little in the way of a statistical edge on the prop line, the outlook for betting the under gets a substantial boost when factoring in the accompanying prices. According to OddsShopper, optimal +125 odds are 15 cents better than any other listing in the market. At that price point, the expected ROI for this under prediction comes in at a healthy value of 18%.
Thanks to the favorable plus-money odds, it is clear that the value is on the under for this prop. However, if you believe it is not worth the risk of betting that Green will have less than seven assists in Game 1, there is an alternative as BetMGM is giving away FREE money on tonight’s game. All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Mavericks or Warriors hit just one 3-pointer tonight. That is a lock for any NBA game these days, let alone one featuring as many 3-point marksmen as will be on the floor in this year’s Western Conference Finals!
Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Draymond Green UNDER 6.5 Assists (+125, PointsBet)
Kevon Looney O/U 5.5 Points (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)
For the most part in these NBA Playoffs, center Kevon Looney has only been used sparingly. With the Warriors typically being at their best when they go small, there simply has not been a need for Looney to play big minutes in the majority of games. That all went out the window in Game 6 last round against Memphis. After getting killed on the boards by Steven Adams, Golden State countered by playing Looney for 35 minutes in the closeout win. He corralled a whopping 22 boards and did enough to ensure that a trip back to Memphis for Game 7 was not in the team’s future.
Despite the sharp uptick in minutes, Looney did not make much of an impact offensively in Game 6. He scored just four points on 2-7 shooting. The seven shots were the most that the 26-year-old has taken in any game so far this postseason. He typically converts at a much higher percentage given that he plays close to the basket. As a result, Looney was actually able to eclipse the NBA player props line of 5.5 points on three different occasions in the conference semifinals. On the full season, he averaged six points per game while playing 21.1 minutes. Despite this, OddsShopper shows plus-money prices available on the over for his scoring prop ahead of tonight’s Game 1.
One has to believe that the Warriors will need to utilize Looney in this Western Conference Finals matchup against the Mavericks. The size and length of the Dallas frontcourt are likely to limit the effectiveness of Golden State’s small lineup. While he may not see 35 minutes as he did in the closeout win over Memphis, Looney should certainly play more than he was in the playoffs prior to that. Add in the fact that OddsShopper indicates optimal +125 odds offer a 20-cent advantage over other market listings and this over prediction is worth a speculative wager at the very least. Awesemo’s projections view the NBA prop bets total as being spot on. As a result, the plus-money pricing affords a 10% expected ROI value.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Kevon Looney OVER 5.5 Points (+125, PointsBet)
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