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Thursday, May 19 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Robert Williams III

Henry John



The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are set to take center stage on Thursday night. Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals marks the only matchup on the NBA prop bets slate today. Despite this, there are still several different options for bettors to consider this evening. Thanks to the NBA player props market, there are always numerous ways to approach betting on the biggest games of the NBA season. Even in this Celtics-Heat series, where defense is expected to rule the day, there is money to be made betting on player props.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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Robert Williams III O/U 9.5 Rebounds (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)

After being inactive for each of the final four games last round, Celtics center Robert Williams III played 28 minutes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday. It was a productive outing for Williams. In addition to scoring 18 points on 75% shooting from the field, the former Texas A&M standout also corralled nine rebounds. That total tied for the second-most boards by any player in Game 1, finishing behind only teammate Jaylen Brown who had 10. It did, however, fall just shy of exceeding the posted NBA prop bets line of 9.5 rebounds today.

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On the season, Williams averaged a healthy 9.6 boards per game for Boston. However, the playoffs have been a very different story thus far. In fact, the nine rebounds he had in Game 1 two days ago also is Williams’ playoff high to date. The 24-year-old has been in and out of the Celtics’ lineup thanks to the nagging knee injury that also forced him to miss a stretch of the regular season. When he has been on the floor in the playoffs, his playing time has fluctuated greatly. Only one other time aside from Tuesday’s game has Williams even managed to surpass five rebounds in a playoff game.

With so much uncertainty surrounding Williams’ playing time, health and prior performances in these playoffs, one has to believe that the NBA player props line of 9.5 rebounds is on the high side. The fact that the prop is juiced to the under furthers that notion. In addition, OddsShopper actually shows that the majority of sportsbooks list Williams’ rebound prop a full board lower at 8.5. Thus, there is true market value to be had in the higher number. Awesemo only projects him for 7.76 rebounds in Game 2 tonight. Along with a 75% win probability for a bet on him to stay under 9.5, the -140 odds yield a solid expected ROI of 28%.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Robert Williams III UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (-140, PointsBet)

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Payton Pritchard O/U 9.5 Points (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)

There have been several worthwhile NBA player props at plus-money prices the past couple of days. Awesemo believes that the scoring prop for Celtics guard Payton Pritchard represents another such play for tonight’s Game 2. Pritchard has certainly played his way into more minutes recently. After knocking down a quartet of three-pointers in Boston’s Game 7 win over Milwaukee, he hit another four triples on Tuesday night. Pritchard finished 6-for-16 shooting from the field overall and scored 18 points in 30 minutes.

The return of Marcus Smart to the lineup is bound to negatively impact Pritchard’s playing time. However, keep in mind that both he and Al Horford were available in Game 7 when Pritchard scored 14 points in just 17 minutes of game action. As a 41% shooter from beyond the arc on the season, the former Oregon point guard is more than capable of putting up points in a hurry. Given how hot he has been from outside in each of the last two games, one has to believe that the NBA prop bets line of 9.5 points is within Pritchard’s reach today.

Considering that Pritchard only averaged 6.2 points per game over the course of the full season, it’s no wonder that this prop is heavily juiced to the under. At the time of writing, OddsShopper indicates that bettors can find optimal +125 odds on the over. In addition to being a fine plus-money price on its own, these odds also yield up to 25 cents of value relative to other prices listed across the market. Although Awesemo doesn’t have a huge statistical projection edge on this over play, the favorable odds work to produce a 7% expected ROI value.

Now, with that being said, oddsmakers clearly have the over on this scoring prop listed at plus-money odds for a reason. If you believe it is not worth the risk of betting on Pritchard to score in double figures tonight, BetMGM has just the alternative option for you! How does some FREE money sound? Through BetMGM, you can get your hands on just that during tonight’s Eastern Conference Finals Game 2! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Celtics or Heat hit just one 3-pointer tonight. Even if he falls short of his scoring prop, Pritchard himself could very well be the one who wins you free cash by knocking down a triple tonight.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Payton Pritchard OVER 9.5 Points (+125, PointsBet)

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Gabe Vincent O/U 2.5 Assists (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)

Look, if oddsmakers are just going to keep posting the assists NBA prop bets total for Gabe Vincent at 2.5, we may as well just keep betting the over. The Heat have already ruled veteran point guard Kyle Lowry out for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. As a result, Vincent will be in the starting lineup and should see upwards of 30 minutes of playing time as well. In Game 1 on Tuesday, Vincent set a new career playoff high with 17 points scored. Even in a game where he made a tremendous impact as a scorer himself, he was still able to dish out the three assists need to eclipse the questionably low NBA player props line.

In games where Lowry has been held out during these playoffs, Vincent has finished with less than three assists just once. Keep in mind that the former UC Santa Barbara Gaucho also averaged 3.1 assists per game over the course of the full season. Thus, the betting line of 2.5 is very much a buy-low opportunity relative to his standard rate of production. The fact that he doesn’t even need to be better than his season-long per-game average makes the over very appealing. The Celtics are certainly a top-tier defense, but Vincent hardly has to be other-worldly to clear the NBA prop bets threshold today.

Given how the betting total stacks up against Vincent’s season average, it’s no shock to find OddsShopper showing heavy juice to the over on this prop offering. Bettors are reminded that laying extra juice doesn’t matter when the bet wins, a scenario that played out to perfection in Game 1 just two nights ago. By shopping the odds, one can obtain up to ten cents of value over competing sportsbooks by playing this prop at a -165 price point. Awesemo has Vincent tabbed for exactly 3.48 helpers in Game 2 tonight. Even with the hefty juice, this over prediction still affords an 8% expected ROI value.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Gabe Vincent OVER 2.5 Assists (-165, BetMGM)

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