With only two days left until the MLB Trade Deadline, it will be important to keep an eye on the news when it comes to MLB strikeout props. These props flood the Parlay Builder each and every day, as they provide the highest xWin bets that one can make. Tonight features a nine-game slate from which to make a Prop Party Parlay, which is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/1
Cal Quantrill O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
For the second consecutive season with the Guardians, Cal Quantrill has a winning record despite a career-high 1.32 WHIP. He has a victory in three of his last four starts, but Quantrill’s main issue is generating strikeouts. A matchup with the Diamondbacks won’t necessarily help, as they rank in the middle of the pack in strikeout rate. Quantrill has a career-low 15.1% strikeout rate this season and has only gone over this strikeout prop line in 4 of his 19 starts. Even with pitching so well lately, Quantrill has only captured five strikeouts once in his last 10 starts. The Guardians are -160 home favorites in this matchup, so he should have no trouble getting another victory on the board, but Quantrill is only projected for 3.7 strikeouts in Stokastic’s MLB Model. He also is the biggest favorite in this parlay to go under 4.5 strikeouts.
Best MLB Pick Today: Cal Quantrill UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Spenser Watkins O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Another relatively hot pitcher right now is Orioles right-hander Spenser Watkins. He has won or had a no-decision in each of his last five starts. In his second season in the major leagues, Watkins has a 1.41 WHIP and 4.45 FIP. Those are not great numbers, but what is even worse is his strikeout rate. After a 13.7% strikeout rate through 16 games last season, Watkins has a 13.8% rate in 13 starts this year. He added a slider, but his fastball still barely reaches over 90 mph. The Rangers rank 10th in strikeout rate as a team, but Stokastic projects Watkins to get only 3.0 strikeouts. Despite being +125, this under strikeout prop is the second-highest xWin in this parlay (65%). In his last start against the Rangers less than a month ago, Watkins finished with only three strikeouts; expect a similar result in this matchup.
Best MLB Pick Today: Spenser Watkins UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)
Mike Clevinger O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Continuing with the under strikeout prop trend, Mike Clevinger has an over/under of 5.5 strikeouts in a road matchup against the Rockies. For a team that is much worse on the road, the Rockies still rank 24th in strikeout rate this season. Their 3.2 implied run total should give zero concern for a long outing from Clevinger tonight. Despite being on a team with a 57-46 record, Clevinger has lost three of his last four starts while giving up one home run in each game and 11 combined earned runs. Reaching six or more strikeouts in a start has also been a struggle for Clevinger; he has only accomplished that feat in 3 of his 10 starts this season. Don’t expect much of an issue preventing runs, but do expect Clevinger to struggle collecting strikeouts. This under strikeout prop is the only other favorite in this parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Mike Clevinger UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
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Andrew Heaney O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE Bet
Making only his fifth start of the season, Andrew Heaney has been dominant for the Dodgers, who have a record of 68-33 this season. Heaney has an extremely impressive, career-best 0.88 WHIP and 0.47 ERA this season. However, the downside is how deep he is pitching into these games. He has thrown over 77 pitches once, and that happened in the middle of April. This will be Heaney’s second straight start and his third since April. In his most recent start, Heaney threw 71 pitches through four innings and had four strikeouts. The matchup against the Giants is middle of the road, but Heaney has only had six or more strikeouts once in his four starts. He does have a career-high 34.6% strikeout rate, but it is very difficult to take his over when his workload feels so limited. This under prop is a little bit of an underdog, but trust it.
Best MLB Pick Today: Andrew Heaney UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Brad Keller O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Royals continue to bring up the rear in the AL Central, with a 40-62 record. Brad Keller may look good when he is being compared to the rest of the starters on the Royals, but his numbers aren’t great. He leads the team in wins, ERA and innings, but Keller has never had a strikeout rate above 20% in his career. A 16% strikeout rate this season makes this under prop definitely in play. This matchup against the White Sox also makes this under intriguing, as they have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate this season. In his first two matchups against the White Sox this season, Keller pitched seven complete innings both times but came up short in the strikeout department, with three in each outing. Taking this valuable under prop feels a little better knowing the matchup and seeing how the White Sox are implied for 5.1 runs this evening.
Best MLB Pick Today: Brad Keller UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)
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