Best MLB Prop Bets Today: BIG $$$ Home Run Picks & Predictions 5/11

It is Wednesday, May 11, and there is a 15-game MLB slate that includes eight day games and seven night games for MLB prop bets today. There are various places to go with making prop bets today, as there are some pitchers who have been pitching great like Nathan Eovaldi, Shane McClanahan, Shohei Ohtani and Jameson Taillon. On the flip side, there are some pitchers who have struggled so far like Jose Berrios and Aaron Sanchez. Below are the picks for some of the best MLB prop bets today.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Shane McClanahan O/U 6.5 Strikeouts

Shane McClanahan faces the Los Angeles Angels tonight. The Angels have the seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.7%), making them an interesting team to target with strikeout props. The Angels also have scored the most runs in the league and have the highest ISO (.172) as well. McClanahan has a 36.7% strikeout rate this season, which is higher than his career 29.1% strikeout rate. He is averaging a career-best 1.45 strikeouts per inning and his career average is 1.21 per inning. Going off of his season rate, it would take him five innings on average to go over the total. Using his career averages, it would take him between six innings on average to go over the total as well. It would appear he is on an 80- to 90-pitch limit, as he was taken out at somewhere between 80 and 90 pitches in each of his last four starts. He also has gone over five innings in each of those last four starts too. He is likely to go between five and six innings, and good pitchers can shut down good offenses for a game. Having gone under this total just once in his six starts this season, expecting a higher total was reasonable.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Shane McClanahan OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)

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Spenser Watkins O/U 2.5 Strikeouts

Spenser Watkins gets the nod today for the Orioles against the St. Louis Cardinals. Watkins is 0-0 with a 3.62 ERA and 5.11 xFIP this season, and he has a career xFIP of 5.45. He has a strikeout rate of 10.3% and averages 0.45 strikeouts per inning. He has averaged 0.58 strikeouts per inning over the course of his career. St. Louis has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.3%). Even though the Cardinals are middle of the pack in runs, ISO and on-base percentage, anytime a pitcher with a career xFIP of 5.45 takes the mound, they are liable to give up runs. To get three strikeouts, Watkins would have to pitch between 5.2 innings in this game. The furthest he has made it in a game is five innings (twice) and only 76 pitches (also twice). He has gone under this total in three of his five starts.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Spenser Watkins UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Pete Alonso O/U 1.5 Total Bases

Pete Alonso and the Mets will face Aaron Sanchez and the Washington Nationals. Alonso is batting .280 with a .220 ISO this season. He is also averaging 1.90 bases per game, as 12 out of his 33 hits this season have gone for extra bases. Sanchez has an 8.56 ERA but a 3.91 xFIP (career xFIP is 4.44). He is allowing a hard-hit rate of 59.6% as well, but this is all with a small sample size of just 13.2 innings this season. This is a good spot to find some MLB prop bets to target against Sanchez. A sprinkle on Alonso’s home run prop could also be warranted, as Sanchez has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season and allowed 1.37 HR/9 in his last full season in 2019.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120), OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370)

Brandon Belt O/U 0.5 Home Runs

Brandon Belt will face Chad Kuhl and the Rockies in San Francisco. Kuhl has pitched excellently this season, posting a 1.82 ERA, 3.85 xFIP and allowing 0.61 HR/9. These are all better than his career marks of a 4.28 ERA, 4.59 xFIP and 1.17 HR/9. Digging even further, he has allowed 1.48 HR/9 in 2018, 1.55 HR/9 in 2020 and 1.45 HR/9 in 2021. Who thought going from Pittsburgh to Colorado would result in this much improvement in his pitching? It is difficult to buy the improvement over a 29.2-inning sample size. Belt is hitting .236 with a .222 ISO, including four home runs on the season. This is a downgrade from his .323 ISO last season, however, more in line with his career .201 ISO. Awesemo’s MLB projections model gives Belt a 19% chance of hitting a home run today. At +450 odds (18% implied probability), there is a small edge to be had there.

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Best MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Brandon Belt OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450)

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