MUST-BET NBA Player Props Picks Tonight Heat vs Celtics Game 6

Published May 27, 2022 12:34 pm

Tonight could very well be the last time we will have an NBA game until next week! If the Boston Celtics manage to close out the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals this evening, it will be a full six days until there is NBA basketball to watch and bet on. Considering that the Celtics are a hefty favorite and playing at home, one has to believe they will get the job done tonight. With this likely being the last game until the NBA Finals start on Thursday, June 2, bettors are advised to take full advantage of another plentiful NBA player props menu. As has been the case throughout the playoffs, there are several worthwhile NBA betting picks to explore ahead of Friday night’s matchup.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Jimmy Butler O/U 23.5 Points

Regular readers of this NBA betting picks column are bound to recognize this first prop for Friday’s game. Simply put, what has Jimmy Butler done over the last three games to inspire any sort of confidence that he can exceed 23.5 points, let alone even come close to this points prop total? Butler never came out of the locker room after halftime in Game 3 of these Eastern Conference Finals. He was reportedly held out of the second half in that game due to knee swelling that also forced him to miss Game 5 of the Heat’s Round 1 series against Atlanta. While Butler has not been listed on the official injury report since, he has hardly been himself on the floor.

After scoring just eight and six points in Games 3 and 4 of this series, Butler shot an abysmal 4-for-18 from the field in Game 5 on Wednesday. He finished with 13 points, 11 below that day’s NBA player props consensus line of 24.5. Spanning the last three games of this series, the 32-year-old has shot 10-for-40 from the field. Yikes! The fact that the Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in recent NBA history is not going to change ahead of Friday’s game. The same can likely be said for the knee discomfort that Butler is trying to play through. He has shown no bounce or explosion whatsoever in each of the last two games. Butler has also failed to get to the free-throw line, the weapon that probably would pose the greatest threat to this under prediction.

As the only Heat player who is truly capable of creating his own shot, Butler is likely to still attempt his fair share of shots tonight. Unless he is feeling a whole lot better, nothing from the past few games suggests that he will make enough to go over the NBA prop bets total. A one-point adjustment from Wednesday’s line is simply not enough.

At the time of writing, OddsShopper actually shows that numerous sportsbooks are listing Butler’s scoring prop one or even two full points lower than the preferred line. The -120 juice required to bet under 23.5 points is just five cents more than what one shop is listing to bet under 21.5. Awesemo only projects Butler to score 22.27 points tonight. One could certainly argue that this is a generation projection given his recent shooting form.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Jimmy Butler UNDER 23.5 Points | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

Jaylen Brown O/U 6.5 Rebounds

In each of the past two games, a bet on Celtics star Jayson Tatum to exceed 6.5 rebounds cashed at plus-money odds. The NBA player props odds have shifted for Tatum ahead of Game 6, but the exact same opportunity now exists for his teammate, Jaylen Brown. The over on 6.5 boards for Brown can be obtained at favorable prices reaching as high as +106 according to OddsShopper at the time of writing. Despite the plus-money odds, the idea of Brown snatching at least seven rebounds in Friday’s matchup is hardly far-fetched.

On the full season, Brown averaged 6.1 boards per game. Although this is nearly a half-board below the NBA prop bets total today, the 25-year-old has mostly been flying over both that average and the betting line in these Eastern Conference Finals. While Brown only had four rebounds in Game 5 on Wednesday, he managed to corral no less than seven in Games 1-4. Three of those contests saw him haul in eight rebounds or more. It’s also worth noting that Brown has been even more consistent on the glass at home in these playoffs. Dating back to the start of the Celtics’ second round series against Milwaukee, Brown has exceeded the NBA betting prop total in five of six home games. The one time he fell short, he was still right on the doorstep with six boards.

Of course, the fact that Robert Williams III has rejoined the rotation has cut into the number of rebounding opportunities for wing players like Brown. With that being said, the fact that the Heat can’t hit the broad side of a barn shooting naturally creates more chances for any and all players to come up with rebounds. Awesemo has Brown pegged to finish with exactly 6.92 boards in Game 6 tonight. Although the 54% win probability for this over prediction reflects a minimal statistical advantage, the presence of plus-money odds helps boost the overall value. OddsShopper shows that the preferred price point of +106 is up to six cents better than other listings in the market. At those odds, this wager is determined to have an 11% expected ROI value.

Now, if you find yourself thinking that it is not worth the risk of betting on Brown to finish with seven rebounds or more tonight, our friends at BetMGM have a very appealing alternative! By nice alternative, we quite literally mean winning FREE MONEY on tonight’s NBA Playoffs game! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Heat or Celtics hit just one 3-pointer tonight. Even though this has been a defensive-minded series of late, betting on a single three-pointer in today’s NBA is an absolute lock!

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Jaylen Brown OVER 6.5 Rebounds | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

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Al Horford O/U 3.5 Assists

Rounding out our Game 6 NBA betting picks is yet another plus-money prop for bettors to ponder. Not many thought much of the Celtics trading to bring Al Horford back to Boston at the time, but boy has that move paid off big time in these playoffs. Horford has done a little bit of everything for Boston in the postseason. However, his assist numbers have been the true epitome of consistency. Dating back to the start of the Celtics’ second-round series against Milwaukee, Horford has finished with no less than three assists in every single game he has played. That is a stretch of 11 straight games with a trio of helpers (Horford missed Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals due to health and safety protocols).

On the full season, Horford has averaged 3.4 assists per game. While the 35-year-old has largely been capped at three dimes per game over the aforementioned stretch of playoff games, he has literally been knocking on the doorstep of exceeding today’s NBA player props total every time out. The 35-year-old managed to do so in Boston’s Game 5 win, finishing with five total assists. That marked the fourth time in his last nine games played that Horford distributed five assists or more.

Taking all of this into account, Awesemo believes that there is value in betting on Horford to eclipse 3.5 assists on Friday night. The key component of this prediction is the betting price itself. OddsShopper shows that the optimal price of +140 on the over is up to 15 cents better than the listings at other sportsbooks. +140 odds carry an implied probability of 41.7%. While Awesemo only believes there is a 43% chance that Horford actually goes over his assists prop tonight, that probability is greater than what the optimal price point suggests. As a result, this over prediction is given a positive expected ROI valuation and is worth pursuing so long as bettors are able to do so at the best available odds.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Al Horford OVER 3.5 Assists | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

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