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MUST-BET NBA Player Props Picks Tonight WCF Game 4 | Kevon Looney

Henry John



The first ticket to the 2022 NBA Finals could be punched on Tuesday night. The Golden State Warriors are eyeing an unlikely sweep of the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals with Game 4 of the series on tap for this evening. Interestingly enough, the Mavericks are laying a single point with the majority of NBA betting picks expecting them to extend the series to a fifth game. With all of the lopsided scores that have been taking place lately, bettors might be more inclined to pursue opportunities in the NBA player prop bets market for the game today.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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Kevon Looney O/U 9.5 Rebounds

After how the Warriors got blasted on the boards by Steven Adams towards the end of their Second Round series against Memphis, it was clear that a solution would need to be put in place going into the Western Conference Finals. Given that Kevon Looney engulfed a whopping 22 boards in the series-clinching win over Memphis, it was reasonable to believe that he would play a bigger role going forward as well. That handicap has come to fruition and then some. Looney has played no less than 28 minutes in Games 1-3 against the Mavericks. He has a pair of double-digit scoring lines and has also corralled a dozen rebounds in each of the last two contests.

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Given Looney’s increased presence on the floor, bettors can overlook his season average of 7.3 rebounds to an extent. After all, he achieved that mark despite only playing 21 minutes per game. With seven-to-10 minutes of additional playing time in this series, it is no surprise to see him breaking into double figures on the glass. Looney would need to finish with 10 rebounds minimum in order to exceed tonight’s NBA player props total of 9.5. Despite this line being well above his per-game average on the season, OddsShopper actually indicates that the odds are juiced to the over across the NBA prop bets market.

The other factor to consider here is how awful the Mavs have been on the boards. The Warriors have actually outrebounded Dallas by 13 boards or more in all three games of this series to date. The trend is not exclusive to the Western Conference Finals either. The Mavs were simply able to overcome their rebounding deficiencies easier against lesser-quality opponents. Awesemo expects Looney to once again be a big part of the Warriors’ efforts on the glass in Game 4 tonight. A projection of 109.61 rebounds results in a win probability of 62% that he finishes above the NBA player props line.

In addition, OddsShopper can help bettors locate -122 odds that offer up to 13 cents of value compared to other listings in the market. At that price point, the expected ROI value for this over prediction is set at 12%.

Prop Pick: Kevon Looney OVER 9.5 Rebounds | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

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Spencer Dinwiddie O/U 13.5 Points

From a statistical standpoint, there is a real argument to be made that the NBA prop bets line of 13.5 points for Mavericks guard Spencer Dinwiddie is set too high. Interestingly enough, his scoring prop totals have fluctuated back and forth all throughout this series. After scoring 17 in Game 1, Dinwiddie’s NBA player props total went up from 11.5 to 12.5. He then proceeded to only score four points in Game 2. The line dipped to over/under 10.5 points ahead of Sunday night’s home game. After sailing past that total with a 26-point effort, today’s line of 13.5 is the highest for Dinwiddie in these playoffs to date.

OddsShopper actually shows that the market is split when it comes to the odds on this prop. Some books are slightly juiced to the over. Others are leaning slightly towards the under. Based on the fact that Dinwiddie has averaged 15.8 points per game since joining the Mavericks at the trade deadline, one could argue that over is the play. Keep in mind that Dallas was without Luka Doncic for some of those games early in the playoffs. While Dinwiddie has cleared the NBA player props line in four of the last five games, he fell short in each of the five games prior to that. The former Colorado Buffalo has scored 11 points or less in eight of the 13 games in which Doncic has been in the lineup this postseason.

One other tidbit to note is that Dinwiddie has averaged 15.8 points per game as a Maverick while also averaging 50% shooting from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. Those numbers most definitely are not sustainable. One has to believe that is even more so the case against the stout Warriors defense. Awesemo gives Dinwiddie a 62% chance to stay under the NBA prop bets line of 13.5 points today. When paired with optimal -106 odds, this prediction results in an expected ROI value of 18%.

With all of that being said, betting under on a scoring prop for a player who has been extremely impressive in this series so far is admittedly easier said than done. If you do not think that it is worth the risk of betting that Dinwiddie will score less than 14 points in Game 4 tonight, perhaps a little FREE MONEY from BetMGM will be more to your liking! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Warriors or Mavericks hit just one 3-pointer tonight. That is literally all there is to it. Given how these two teams shoot the 3, you are guaranteed to be making it rain tonight!

Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie UNDER 13.5 Points | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

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Maxi Kleber O/U 4.5 Rebounds 

One of Awesemo’s favorite NBA picks on the board today is focused on the rebounding total for Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber. The 30-year-old has been such a key part of the Mavs making a run all the way to the Western Conference Finals. Unfortunately, it has been tough sledding for him in this series so far. Not only has Kleber been a non-factor on the offensive end, but he has also finished with four rebounds or less in each of the first three games against Golden State. Relative to a per-game average of 5.9 boards on the full season, it is safe to say that Kleber’s rebounding numbers in this series have been very underwhelming.

On the bright side for bettors, the poor showings in Games 1-3 have caused the NBA player props market to adjust Kleber’s rebounding total ahead of Tuesday’s matchup. This has created a buy-low opportunity with his prop line sitting at just 4.5 boards for Game 4. Not only that, but OddsShopper indicates that there is a discrepancy of 10 cents when it comes to the prices available in the market on the over. One would notably have to go all the way back to Game 5 of Dallas’ Second Round series against Phoenix to find the last time Kleber exceeded today’s NBA prop bets total. However, he has finished with exactly four rebounds in three of the five games since then.

In a nutshell, the diminished betting total has resulted in a favorable over prediction. Awesemo has Kleber tabbed for exactly 6.01 rebounds in Game 4 tonight. This number yields a confident win probability of 72% that the over will hit. When paired with the favorable -115 odds, the resulting 37% expected ROI value is too good to pass up.

Pick: Maxi Kleber OVER 4.5 Rebounds | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM

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