With the series tied at two games apiece, this Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics series shifts back to FTX Arena for Game 5. The Celtics are two-point road favorites as they are 5-2 on the road during the playoffs. This series has yo-yo’d back and forth as both teams are struggling to stay healthy. The margin of victory in this series has been 15.5 points per game. Let’s hope for not only a better game but to hit a winner with our NBA first basket predictions and prop bet picks today!
NBA First Basket Prediction & Prop Bet Picks Today 5/25
The NBA first basket pick is a great sweat in any game! This is a fun bet to make, but do not expect to make money on this long-term. However, you can get $200 free at BetMGM tonight if you use this link and the bet is free! Let’s do our best to try to break down the best first basket predictions and prop bet picks for Celtics vs. Heat Game 5.
Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 | Wednesday, May 25 | 8:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive into the starters and their odds to score the first basket, plus who scored in the first four games.
The Starters and Odds
- Jaylen Brown +400
- Bam Adebayo +450
- Jayson Tatum +550
- Jimmy Butler +600
- Max Strus +800
- Al Horford +1000
- Robert Williams +1000
- Kyle Lowry +1200
- Marcus Smart +1200
- PJ Tucker +1400
First Baskets By Each Game
- Game 1 – Grant Williams (Started for Al Horford)
- Game 2 – P.J. Tucker
- Game 3 – Max Strus
- Game 4 – Derrick White (Started for Marcus Smart)
Stud NBA First Basket Prop Bet: Jaylen Brown +450
Picking the favorite for a first basket prop feels a little odd until you dive into the numbers. Boston led the league in scoring first in 65% of their games, while the Heat scored first 49% of the time. They have split the tip with two apiece in this series and both teams have scored first twice in their opening four games. If Robert Williams (questionable) starts, he and Bam Adebayo have above a 60% tip-win rate. That feels like a literal coin flip. If the Celtics win the tip, Jaylen Brown leads the team by a wide margin in scoring first. Brown also led the Celtics in first-quarter scoring with 7.4 points per game, whereas Jayson Tatum only had six per game. Brown is the favorite, but for a reason.
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Longshot NBA First Basket Prop Bet: Max Strus +800
Picking between Max Strus and P.J. Tucker was more difficult than you would think for a long shot to score the first basket. Tucker scored the first basket in Game 2 and had the first Heat field goal attempt in Game 1, but missed an 11-foot jump shot. However, Strus seems like the better bet at these odds. He is second behind Jimmy Butler in first-quarter points during the playoffs with 4.3 per game. Strus had the first basket in Game 3, which was no surprise a 3-pointer, as 79.2% of his field goal attempts have come from behind the arc during the playoffs. If betting Strus, think about taking his first basket exact method of a 3-pointer at +1100. That feels much better than +800.
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