Few things are quite like a Game 7 to decide who will play in the NBA Finals. This Eastern Conference title series has been pretty wild, as the margin of victory is 13.8 points per game. The Miami Heat get set to host the Boston Celtics as 2.5-point home underdogs after losing two of their three home games in this series. A close Game 7 is all the fans want — and a first basket prop bet, of course. Control what we can control — here are a couple great options tonight.
NBA First Basket Prediction & Prop Bet Picks Today 5/29
It is always nice to hit a +1400 winner (Kevon Looney) in these first basket predictions to provide some leeway since this is such a hard prop to hit. This series has been filled with longshots scoring the first basket. It has been a tough series to predict, as so many players for both side have been out. It is easy to expect everyone to play in a Game 7, but keep an eye on the Starting Lineups Page to be sure of who is in and out.
Heat vs. Celtics Game 7 | Sunday, May 29 | 8:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive into the starters and their odds to score the first basket, plus who scored in the first six games.
The Starters and Odds
- Jaylen Brown +400
- Bam Adebayo +500
- Jimmy Butler +550
- Jayson Tatum +600
- Grant Williams +900
- Max Strus +950
- P.J. Tucker +1000
- Al Horford +1100
- Kyle Lowry +1200
- Marcus Smart +1200
First Baskets By Each Game
- Game 1 – Grant Williams (Started for Al Horford)
- Game 2 – P.J. Tucker
- Game 3 – Max Strus
- Game 4 – Derrick White (Started for Marcus Smart)
- Game 5 – Robert Williams
- Game 6 – P.J. Tucker
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Stud NBA First Basket Prop Bet: Jaylen Brown +400
Getting a stud to score the first basket in this series has been impossible. Many have had chances, but ultimately a longshot has prevailed. If anyone is going to turn the tables around, it would be Jaylen Brown, who led the league in first baskets this season. Between Brown and Jayson Tatum, it has been Brown leading the Celtics in drives and field goal attempts per game in this series. It is a little weird that BetMGM has Grant Williams starting for Robert Williams even though he is still questionable. Keep an eye on that news. That may alter who wins the tip, but Brown is still the better play in this spot. He has a 28.8% usage rate in this series and leads the Celtics in first quarter scoring in the playoffs.
Longshot NBA First Basket Prop Bet: Kyle Lowry +1200
A longshot has made the first basket in all six games of this series, and Kyle Lowry is the pick for tonight. He had the first shot attempt in Game 6 in what ended up being arguably the best game for Lowry in a Miami Heat uniform. Aggressiveness is what the Heat need from Lowry tonight as well. Before fouling out, Lowry had a double-double with 18 points and 10 assists as he and Jimmy Butler propelled the Heat to a road victory. Despite only playing in four of the six games of this series, Lowry has really struggled, shooting just 22.2% from the field and 26.6% from behind the arc. Perhaps Lowry can use the momentum from Game 6 into a first basket in Game 7.
If this bet seems too risky, fear not! BetMGM is offering free money, and all you need to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Heat or Celtics hit a 3-pointer.
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