PGA Picks This Week: Expert Golf Bets & Betting Odds

For the final event of the fall swing, the PGA Tour heads to Sea Island, Ga., for the RSM Classic. This event is one of the rare tournaments that features multiple courses. Ever since it was added to the PGA schedule in 2010, the first 36 holes of the RSM Classic have consisted of each golfer playing one round on the Seaside Course (par 70, 7,005 yards, Bermuda greens) and one round on the Plantation Course (par 72, 7,060 yards, Bermuda greens). Then there will be a standard top 65 and ties making the cut, and the players that stay inside the cutline will play their final two rounds on the Seaside Course. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks this week and Vegas betting odds for the RSM Classic.

Expert PGA Picks This Week: RSM Classic

Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has produced the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played.

Russell Henley (+3000, Caesars Sportsbook)

Henley was right in the mix last week at the Houston Open, gaining strokes in every major category en route to a seventh-place finish. Specifically, he gained 3.7 strokes on the Bermuda greens at Memorial Park, which is the most strokes Henley has produced with his flat stick in over six months. He is notorious for being a Bermuda specialist, with all three of his career PGA wins coming on this type of putting surface, and if Henley can maintain the hot putting stroke, he should absolutely contend for a win in his home state this week.

This season Henley leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach, and he has finished inside the top 10 three times in seven career starts at the RSM Classic. Plus, he is the No. 33 golfer in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings, which is 23 spots higher than Henley’s standard ranking.

Kevin Kisner (+4000, PointsBet)

Kisner lost in a playoff to Robert Streb at last year’s RSM Classic and has five career finishes inside the top seven at the multi-course event, most notably with a victory in 2016. That year Kisner dominated, winning by six strokes, and no player in the field has gained more career strokes at Sea Island than Kisner. His recent form has been underwhelming, but just back in August he won the Wyndham Championship with some uninspiring form heading into the event. His experience at the RSM Classic trumps any concerns about his recent form, and Kisner needs to be considered at these long odds.

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Luke List (+8000, PointsBet)

List is coming off an 11th-place finish at the Houston Open where he led the field in strokes gained tee to green with a whopping 13.2. This was the high mark of the event by nearly two strokes, but List unfortunately was horrible on the greens, losing a field-worst 5.6 strokes putting. Even an average showing with his flat stick might have gotten List the win, and if he can find some luck with his putter this week to combine with his elite ball striking, he could dominate at Sea Island.

List has carded five top-11 finishes in his last 15 starts, and he has advanced to the weekend in three of five career starts at the RSM Classic, including an eighth-place finish in 2018. At 98th in the Unofficial World Golf Rankings, List ranks 58 spots higher than his standard ranking and is without a doubt worth a flier at this price.

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