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2022 BMW Championship PGA DFS Preview: Top DraftKings Picks & Jon Rahm Early Favorite To Win This Week

Geoff Ulrich

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2022 BMW Championship pga dfs picks today DraftKings DFS golf fantasy golf lineup picks predictions Jon Rahm

The second leg of the PGA TOUR playoffs, the BMW Championship, takes us to Wilmington, Delaware and will feature a course in the Wilmington Country Club that has yet to host a PGA TOUR event. The venue will likely play as a par 71 and sits at around 7,534 yards in length, making it one of the longer par 71 tests we’ll see on the PGA. Wilmington Country Club is a classic parkland course that bears some resemblance to architect Robert Trent Jones’ other popular PGA TOUR destination, Firestone Country Club the former host of the now defunct WGC Bridgestone. The field this week was pared down to 70 and once again there will be no alternates, so any withdraws won’t see new players added to the field. For daily fantasy golf purposes that’s significant as the 70-man field this week won’t include a Friday cut.

There’s lots to wade through this week, with the FedEx Cup bubble in play as well, so don’t forget to check out the Stokastic projections, which have both scoring data and ownership projections. Stokastic projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. There’s a ton of big PGA DFS contests around the industry so be sure to check them out before making any final decisions.

PGA DFS Preview | BMW Championship 2022

The FedEx St. Jude Classic gave us lots of excitement as the heavy water in play and tighter setup made for a lot of dramatic swings by players between rounds. Will Zalatoris survived one of the most surreal playoffs in recent memory and landed his first PGA TOUR win. Zalatoris becomes one of the first PGA players to make a FedEx Cup event his first career win and he’ll now go into the BMW Championship as the number one seed.

Top Strokes Gained from FedEx St. Jude Championship

  • Approach: Will Zalatoris
  • Tee to Green: Will Zalatoris
  • Putting: Adam Scott

BMW Championship PGA DFS Picks and Preview

The BMW is where things really start to heat up in the playoffs. Only the top 30 players at the end of the week (of the remaining top 70 players) will get to move on and reap the benefits of making it to East Lake. On the line here is a trip to all four majors and a shot at massive bonus money for just making it to the final event of the season. There’s no cut this week either, so for DFS, even if someone gets off to a slow start, he’ll have the weekend to (potentially) make things up.

Here’s a list of the top 10 players in the FedEx Cup playoffs heading into the first playoff event of the season.

  1. Will Zalatoris
  2. Scottie Scheffler
  3. Cameron Smith
  4. Sam Burns
  5. Tony Finau
  6. Xander Schauffele
  7. Patrick Cantlay
  8. Sepp Straka
  9. Rory McIlroy
  10. Justin Thomas

Notables: Jon Rahm (14), Adam Scott (44), Aaron Wise (32), Brian Harman (25),

Field Notes: Scheffler and McIlroy were some big missed cuts, but both stay in the top 10 in the standings for this week. Will Zalatoris moves into first in the FedEx Cup race after notching his first win of the year and Sepp Straka made a massive jump into third with his solo second place finish. Other big movers were Trey Mullinax, Brian Harman and Adam Scott. Scott will need another big week to make the top 30 at East Lake.

The BMW Championship Winners

2021: Patrick Cantlay (25-1)

  • Lead-in: 6th/week off/23rd + missed cut at Open Championship in July

2020: Jon Rahm (10-1)

  • Lead-in: 6th/13th/52nd + 13th was at PGA Championship (played in August that season)

2019: Justin Thomas (16-1)

  • Lead-in: 12th/12th/11th + was 12th at the Open Championship in July

2018: Keegan Bradley (125-1)

  • Lead-in: 39th/34th/42nd +was 42nd at the PGA Championship that year played in August

2017: Marc Leishman (40-1)

  • Lead-in: 3rd/MC/13th + was 13th at the PGA Championship that year played in August

Analysis: The trend for the BMW has been pretty simple: Progressive form from above average to elite players. Keegan Bradley was a longshot winner in 2018, but otherwise the winners have this event have been much shorter in odds. More importantly, the winners had showed us good form in the first playoff event with four of the past five winners have finishing 12th or better at the first leg of the playoffs, the week prior.

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

BMW Championship Course Preview

The BMW Championship has been played on a rotation of courses and this year it will use Wilmington Country Club as host for the first time in its history. Wilmington Country Club has hosted some higher-level amateur events in the past, but this will be the first time it’s really getting national level recognition. How the venue will play this week is still a bit of a mystery, but it looks as if it will setup as a very long par 71 at over 7,500 yards. The Robert Trent Jones designed venue is set in traditional parkland setting with trees guarding most of the fairways. Thicker rough and thin landing spots could lead to this course playing a lot tougher than people think as hotter August temperatures look like they’ll be drying the course out all week.

The venue has some rolling features to it but not a ton of elevation and on flyby it looks like a lot like one of Robert Trent Jones’ more famous PGA venue Firestone Country Club, which features a lot of longer drawn-out par 4’s, with some elevated greens and tree-lined fairways.

Wilmington Country Club: Par 71, 7,534

Greens: Bentgrass

Designer: Robert Trent Jones

Par 3’s: 150-200 yards (1), 200+ yards (3)

Par 4’s: 350-400 yards (2), 400-450 yards (6), 450+ yards (3)

Par 5’s: 500-550 yards (1), 600+ yards (2)

Similar Courses: Firestone Country Club (Robert Trent Jones design)

This will be a fairly drastic change from the tighter Bermuda greens at TPC Southwind. Wilmington should be a better venue for off the tee specialists than TPC Southwind with more chances to smash driver and so tee to green play and driving distance should be more of a factor this week. As more of a classic setup which could produce some tougher conditions, look for the real quality (e.g. a top 20 player) to prevail here.

BMW Championship Recent Form Leaders

Short Term Form: Strokes Gained Tee to Green (Last 24 Rounds)

  • Tony Finau
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Cameron Young
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Sungjae Im

Long Term Form: Strokes Gained Tee to Green (Last 100 Rounds)

  • Jon Rahm
  • Justin Thomas
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Collin Morikawa

Top Five Total Strokes Gained Off the Tee (Last 50 rounds)

  • Jon Rahm
  • Cameron Young
  • Keith Mitchell
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Sungjae Im

BMW Championship Sleepers to watch

There’s course history in play for this week so instead we’ll focus extra hard on recent form. Below are some players to keep an on eye on this week either for their recent play or history of popping up in fields like the one we’re getting this week in Delaware.

Want to see which sleepers will be popular? Check out Stokastic’s ownership projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

Mito Pereira

Form: 43rd – FedEx Championship, MC – Open, MC – Scottish Open, MC Travelers

  • It wasn’t that long ago that Mito Pereira was on the 72nd tee at the PGA Championship with a one-shot lead. He had a rough summer, but his form looked back last week.
  • Pereira gained 3.4 strokes on approach last week and likely still won’t have heavy ownership attached to him at the BMW where he’ll need a big week to advance to East Lake.

Cam Davis

Form: 14th – Rocket Mortgage, 16th – 3M Open, 8th – John Deere Classic

  • Davis may not exactly be a true sleeper this week as DFS players have been using him for the last couple of events in droves.
  • The Aussie put in a fourth top 20 finish in a row last week and has gained strokes OTT and on Approach now in each of his last four starts.

BMW Championship Weather Forecast

Thursday a.m.: 65-75 F, Winds 6-8 mph

Thursday p.m.: 75 F, Winds 8 mph, (gusts up to 12mp)

Friday a.m.: 70-80 F, Winds 5 mph

Friday p.m.: 85-90 F, Wings 5-7 mph, (hotter, but lighter winds than Thursday)

It’s a condensed field in play this week so wave stacking won’t be much of a strategy in classic builds. For showdown and first round leader bets though the weather always plays a part and it is always a good idea to take a look at forecast again on Wednesday or watch the BMW Championship PGA DFS Live Before Lock show Wednesday night on the Stokastic YouTube Channel.

BMW Championship Early Betting Leans

Jon Rahm to win | BetMGM

Rahm was around 20-1 at many sites, but he and his wife welcomed the birth of a new child the day before the event started. Rahm wasn’t terrible at all in Memphis, though, and was his usual dominate self off the tee at TPC Southwind. His strengths there should shine through more at a longer more expansive course like Wilmington and the extra week of prep should help. His move into a 6th place finish on the weekend was very encouraging. If his number is anywhere close to what was on offer last week, he’ll be a great outright target again.

To see how Rahm rates out this week for the BMW Championship for betting and daily fantasy, check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS site projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

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