The FedEx Cup Playoffs kick off this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship, held at TPC Southwind (par 70, 7,243 yards, Bermuda greens). This tournament consists of the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup rankings, and there will be a standard cut of top 65 and ties. Below are some of the top PGA DFS optimizer picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship using Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool.
PGA DFS GPP Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship
With small greens, narrow fairways, thick rough, 75 bunkers and water coming into play on 11 holes, TPC Southwind is a challenging test of golf. To succeed at this track, golfers must be elite striking the ball. Over the last four years, three of the players to secure the top prize at TPC Southwind have finished the event top five in both strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained on approach.
Additionally, this venue favors mistake-free golfers and terrific par-4 players. When Abraham Ancer won last year’s FedEx St. Jude Invitational, he became the fourth consecutive champion to finish in top seven in both par-4 efficiency and bogeys avoided.
***Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top six of the tournament.***
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 2nd, FanDuel: 10th
This is an opportune time to buy low on Rahm since he projects to be the least popular of the studs this week. Rahm’s last two starts were lackluster by his standards, finishing 55th at the Scottish Open and 34th at the British Open. However, he still gained strokes from tee to green at both these events. This season, Rahm has been one of the best ball strikers in the world, gaining strokes from tee to green in all 16 of his starts and ranking sixth in that metric.
Additionally, prior to that two-event trip overseas, Rahm had three top-10 finishes in his previous four starts, including a win at the Mexico Open. Rahm also ranks fifth in strokes gained on 450- to 500-yard par 4’s over his last 50 rounds, which sets him up perfectly for a visit to TPC Southwind, with 6 of the 12 par 4’s at this track falling in this range. Rahm was in the mix at TPC Southwind back in 2019, finishing seventh, and he always rises to the occasion at the first leg of the playoffs — he had four top-six finishes in five attempts at the Northern Trust.
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 10th, FanDuel: 4th
Moore has made six consecutive cuts coming into this week, finishing sixth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and fifth at the Wyndham Championship. At both of these events, he shot under par in all eight rounds, including a career-low 6-under 64 this past Saturday at Sedgefield. Furthermore, Moore gained at least eight strokes from tee to green and ranked inside the top 12 in par-4 efficiency at both these tournaments. Despite having no history at TPC Southwind, Moore is an extremely hard value to overlook given his current form, particularly with Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool expecting him to have minimal ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 3rd, FanDuel: 18th
Wu is another TPC Southwind debutant that is a tremendous cheap way to gain leverage in GPPs, with low ownership coming his direction on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool. Wu brings some compelling form to Memphis this week, placing 30th, 6th, missing the cut, 30th and 8th in his last five starts. And the one missed cut came at the Open, where he missed by just one stroke.
Finishing eighth at the Wyndham last week, Wu opened the event with a 6-under 64, which was only one stroke away from tying his career low on the PGA Tour. Plus, he gained strokes in every major category. Most specifically, Wu gained over six strokes from tee to green for the second straight start. In this type of form as a ball striker, he should excel in his first attempt at TPC Southwind and book himself a ticket to the BMW Championship next week. Currently sitting 75th in the FedEx Cup rankings, Wu cannot afford to have a poor showing in Memphis if he wants his season to continue.
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Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 6th, FanDuel: 28th
Hadley has flashed some upside recently, with four top-10 finishes in his last six starts. The difference has been Hadley’s ability to combine his elite putting with some impressive ball striking, gaining strokes tee to green, on approach and on the greens in all four of his top-10s. He accomplished this last week at the Wyndham and also led the field in strokes gained on the par 4’s.
Over the last 24 rounds, Hadley ranks fourth in strokes gained on par 4’s. While he is 1-for-3 making the cut at TPC Southwind, Hadley hasn’t competed at this course in six years, and he checks all the boxes in his current form. Add in the extra motivation, with Hadley currently sitting 116th in the FedEx Cup standings, and he is a superb, inexpensive GPP target this week. According to Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool, Hadley is slated for less than 1% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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