2023 WGC Match Play Golf DFS Fades & Pivots: Has Max Homa Really Joined the Elite Crew?

The WGC Match Play is here, and it brings a different take on DFS golf picks for DraftKings, as players need to win holes and matches and advance from their pods to accumulate DFS points. From a PGA DFS perspective, it will also be important to create lineups by not overloading with players in one pod or bracket of the draw. Ultimately, since DFS scoring is entirely based on how far players advance, the goal is to get one player from each quadrant into the final four in the tournament. Let’s take a look at the top PGA DFS fades and pivots for this week’s WGC Match Play.

PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | WGC Match Play

Austin Country Clubs Stats and Info

  • Par 71, 7,108 yards; the venue was designed by Pete Dye and has been used as the host for this event since 2016.
  • The venue is set up differently between the two nines, with the front being more rolling and tree-lined, while the back is flat in parklands and goes along the river.
  • Accuracy and short games tend to be of utmost importance, although bigger hitters have overpowered this venue in certain seasons.
  • Players can score here without being super long, and that has been well represented in Kevin Kisner making the finals in three of the last four seasons.

2023 WGC Match Play DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

Bracket 1 Pivot: Victor Perez

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 25.2% |

Victor Perez is set to be one of the most popular players on DraftKings. He is projecting for over 25% ownership levels despite being in a group with Jason Day and Collin Morikawa; even Adam Svensson chews up Pete Dye-designed venues and just posted a 13th place at THE PLAYERS. Perez is a solid player, but he is outclassed in his pod this week and is surpassed in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections by a couple of other players under $6,600. Perez is an easy fade at these levels, especially with numerous strong pivots to turn to in his quadrant and in his own group.

Bracket 1 Pivot: Jason Day

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 9.4% |

Jason Day is a great fit for this event, so it is surprising that his ownership is still not trending above 10%. Even if his PGA DFS ownership projections comes in a couple of points higher than his current projection, Day looks like he will not be near the highest-owned players on the slate, making him a solid pivot option in Bracket 1. He is trending for a strong top-4 probability projection and has not finished worse than 19th over his last six stroke play starts.

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Bracket 2 Fade: Jon Rahm

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 24.4% |

It will be hard to pick against some of the top players in the field this week, but Rahm especially just given how well he is played in spots this season. However, this event produces so many upsets that simply playing all the top players just does not make much sense for GPPs on DraftKings. Rahm has looked semi-lost after starting well at the Arnold Palmer and is coming off his first missed cut of the season at TPC Sawgrass. Despite the slowdown, his PGA DFS ownership projections have not adjusted at all as DFS players look willing to spend up on him once again. Rahm also has one of the tougher groups, with Rickie Fowler, Keith Mitchell and Billy Horschel all having shown good form in 2023 at points.

Bracket 2 Pivot: Corey Conners

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 8.5% |

Conners makes for a solid pivot option in Rahm’s quadrant and looks like tremendous value at under $8,000. He reached the semifinals at this event last season and looked in solid form two starts ago at Bay Hill. Conners is as accurate an iron player as there is on the PGA and one of the leaders on tour in strokes gained total on Pete Dye venues. He is trending well in the PGA DFS projections, with the highest win probability of any player under $8,000. With lower ownership, he makes for a great value play to target from his section of the draw.


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Bracket 3 Fade: Max Homa

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 24.0% |

Homa posted yet another top finish in his last start, placing sixth at TPC Sawgrass. Homa’s movement into the upper echelon of players on the PGA has been fast and furious of late, but he does not have the greatest history at this event and has cooled off considerably with his putter over his last two starts as well. He also has the second-lowest win probability of any player above $10,000. Homa is in a strong section of the draw, and with him potentially pushing 25% ownership levels, he makes for a solid fade candidate.

Bracket 3 Pivot: Patrick Cantlay

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 14.4% |

Patrick Cantlay is one player who is carrying good form but is getting less recognition than Homa as a No. 1 seed in his section. Unlikely Homa, who has a tough draw with the likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Suh, Cantlay has perhaps the best pod draw of the event, getting the out-of-form Brian Harman as a No. 2 seed, along with K.H. Lee and Nick Taylor. Cantlay ranks fourth in win probability this week and has been hitting consistently of late, gaining over seven strokes ball striking in each of his last three starts. He makes for a solid pivot off the higher PGA DFS ownership projections of his elite companion in Homa.

Bracket 4 Fade: Tyrrell Hatton

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 23.4%

Hatton has been playing great golf of late and looks ready to make a run. Weird things tend to happen all the time in the match-play format, and Hatton’s results can fluctuate rather wildly despite having great experience to fall back on. Hatton’s biggest turnoff is his price ($9,000) and PGA DFS ownership projections that are extremely high for any GPP format, let alone the match play, where so many top seeds get eliminated after Friday. Given the overall weakness of his quadrant, Hatton will likely be on many rosters this week, making him an excellent fade candidate (on an ownership basis) in this highly variable format.

Bracket 4 Pivot: Min Woo Lee

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 20.0%

Despite Min Woo Lee also projecting for close to 20% ownership levels, he has solid appeal as a lower-priced pivot option in Hatton’s section of the bracket. Lee finished sixth at THE PLAYERS and has showcased a budding all-around game and putter in 2023. After a top-10 at TPC Sawgrass, Lee now gets a shot at a pod led by a potentially struggling Matthew Fitzpatrick, who may still be dealing with injuries. Do not be afraid to embrace the volatility this week and go after Lee once more as both a value well under $8,000 and a potential pod winner given how poorly some of his pod mates have played recently.

Geoff Ulrich
Author

Stokastic +

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