DFS Golf Picks This Week & Expert Rankings for the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open

The 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open marks the end of football season as the final round on Sunday is finished right before Super Bowl 56 begins. This event also coincides with the final two-month run into Augusta, so it is a good benchmark for players to test where their games are at on the run up to the majors. TPC Scottsdale has an aggressive layout with lots of great scoring holes down the stretch, including the Par-3 16th hole that is turned into a stadium hole every season. It is always quite a sight to be seen with the raucous crowd roaring. With all of that in mind, DFS golf this week will be headlined by some of the best PGA DFS value plays, and finding the right mix of picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups will be interesting, with this being one of the stronger fields of the year so far.

The venue itself plays as a par 71 that measures just under 7,300 yards and, while it has some links-like features, it also features plenty of water. The open layout allows players to take more chances off the tee, and there are often driving averages for the field near or even over 300 yards for the week. Strong off-tee play is essential, but the tournament is won with good iron play, and five of the last six winners have now  gained +6.0 or more strokes on their approaches for the week.

DFS Golf Rankings & Expert Picks: 2022 Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale Stats & Info

  • Course is 7,261 yards, par 71 with three par 5’s that all measure in under 560 yards and play as solid risk/reward holes.
  • Six par 4’s measure in over 445 yards in length, and even though fairways here only typically yield a 57-58% driving accuracy rate, driving distance measures out 10-12 yards higher than the tour average.
  • Longer hitters also get to see shorter approaches and the 150-175 yard range of approaches is the most popular here over time, but there is also a decent number in the 125-150 yard range.

Putting Splits

The greens at TPC Scottsdale are TifEagle Bermuda. The greens do see some Poa overseeding at this time of year so they often play at least somewhat similar to the other West Coast venues. They are almost always set up very fast and very high on the stimpmeter. Here is a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermudagrass putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they are not the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

  1. Denny McCarthy: +43 strokes on Bermuda, +4 on all other surfaces
  2. Adam Hadwin: +24 on Bermuda, +8 on all other surfaces
  3. Billy Horschel: +26 on Bermuda, +16 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay: +31 on Bermuda, -1.0 on all other surfaces
  2. Pat Perez: +28 on Bermuda, -3 on all other surfaces
  3. Tome Hoge: -17 on Bermuda, -1.0 on all other surfaces

DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings for DraftKings & FanDuel

Patrick Cantlay: Grades: A+, Values: B

Patrick Cantlay is playing this event for the first time in his career this week so, understandably, there may be some trepidation around him for DFS. The projections are to dive in this week though as Cantlay again comes out as a top play, ranking second in the overall point projections on Awesemo and with the second-highest win and top-6%. The fact that he is available at under $11,000 on DraftKings makes him an attractive choice for roster building and his ownership projections also have him at very reasonable levels below several other top players.

As for form, Cantlay has looked close to adding another win in multiple starts already in 2022. A fourth-place finish at the opening TOC event was followed by an opening round of 62 at the American Express, and a solid fourth-place finish last week at Pebble Beach. Cantlay is doing almost everything well at the moment and ranks second in DraftKings points gained over the last 50 rounds. We often see momentum carry players to several big weeks in this starting stretch and Cantlay has clearly come out firing. This week could be the stop where he again reaches those lofty heights we saw from his game in last year’s playoffs.

The Stats: 

  • Ranks second in DraftKings points gained and fourth in strokes gained tee to green stats over the last 50 rounds.
  • Ranks top five in both Bogey Avoidance and in Birdies Gained over the last 50 rounds as well.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 15.9% | FanDuel: 23.6%

Louis Oosthuizen : Grades: A, B  Values: B

To target a player over $10,000 on DraftKings for daily fantasy golf for the first selection, there needs to be a decent value option for the second pick. This week will mark the debut of Louis Oosthuizen on the PGA for 2022 and the “rust factor” narrative could create fear about using him this week. Oosthuizen is trending with sub-10% ownership right now on Awesemo, which is an attractive level in and of itself. As for projections, he is another player who ranks out highly and has the best pure points projection on the site of any player under $9,000 on DraftKings this week.

Oosthuizen has only played TPC Scottsdale twice now, but he has excelled at this venue. He landed a third-place finish at this event back in 2017 and another 11th-place finish last year. In both of those starts, Oosthuizen gained over +5.0 strokes combined in around the green and putting, so he has clearly found some good mojo with this layout. His ball-striking was trending up at the end of last year to where he is now sixth in SG: Approach stats over the last 50 rounds. Oosthuizen looks like a great mid-tier value to build around this week and one that likely will not be as popular as he should.

The Stats:

  • Has gained over +2.0 strokes around the greens and putting at TPC Scottsdale in each of his two career starts.
  • Ranks sixth in SG: Approach stats over the last 50 rounds and third in efficiency on Par 4’s of 450-500 yards in length, which there are five of.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9.3% | FanDuel: 7.6%

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Rickie Fowler 

The sentiment on Rickie Fowler seems to have bottomed out once again as he is trending with sub-8% ownership projections this week, at what has been a great venue for him in the past. Two missed cuts to begin 2022 and only one sub-70 round in five total rounds are not great stats to look at, but Fowler has had a tendency to start seasons slowly and turn on the jets once the Tour arrives in Phoenix. In seven career appearances since 2014, Fowler has only missed the cut in Phoenix once and has landed four finishes of 11th or better, including a win in 2019. He has managed to gain strokes on Approach at TPC Scottsdale in all of those seven starts as well, which speaks to how well he has gelled with this week’s venue.

The lack of recent form is also masking the fact that the four-time Tour winner is only five starts removed from a third-place finish at the CJ Cup, where he played in the final grouping to start Sunday. At just $7,600 on DraftKings, it is wise to buy in at these levels, as even a top-30 finish by Fowler will likely do plenty of good for lineups. He has proven he can do a lot more at this event though and the upside is well worth taking a shot on this week.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 6.3%

Looking to get more action down on the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open this week? Check out Ben Rasa’s and Josh Engleman’s expert golf betting picks this week for the Phoenix Open. Subscribe to the OddsShopper YouTube Channel for more PGA bets and predictions.

DraftKings Top Three Under 5%

This section will target three players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. These picks are boom/bust players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Lucas Herbert ($6,800)

Lucas Herbert has had a couple of poor outings on the PGA since grabbing a shock win in Bermuda this fall but posted an 18th place finish overseas two weeks ago on the European Tour. He has done well on open-style venues like TPC Scottsdale in the past and ranks well in eagles and birdies gained.

Carlos Ortiz ($7,000)

Carlos Ortiz has a strong record at TPC Scottsdale that includes a fourth-place finish from last season. He has had a slow start to the year but it was only three starts ago that he landed a runner-up finish at the Mayakoba Classic. He has gained strokes off the tee and on approach at this event in each of the last three years and looks like a solid buy-low candidate.

Wyndham Clark ($6,600)

Wyndham Clark has opened the season with three straight made cuts and has now made six straight cuts entering this week’s event. He has shown better consistency of late and has been gaining strokes at a stronger rate on his approach. He has finished in the top-40 at this event in each of the past two seasons and looks like a swell sub-$7,000 value to target in big fields on DraftKings.

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Geoff Ulrich
Author

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