All of my PGA DFS picks and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and now it’s FREE!
I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making 50-150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs. And so, if this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Week’s Recap
Last week was my first considerable sweat of the year as I went in the final round with a solid 6-for-6 and in 13th place in the $100 — with no Patrick Reed. I climbed all the way to third in the final round when Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris and Jon Rahm were all tied for third, but none of them ended up in the top five, sinking me down the board. Still, it was a profitable week across the board, including a solid showing in the second-round Showdown contests where I decided to try and take advantage of the easier North Course conditions. To my pleasant surprise, not everyone decided to do so. My Round 3 lineups were terrible, but luckily I stayed out of the higher-dollar stuff, so I only gave back about 20% of the profit from Day 3. Lastly, I had a nice Euro lineup. I made two, both ended up getting 6-for-6, and both cashed by tournament end. I am still about $2,000 in the red for the year, so work needs to be done.
PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
Viewing (Sweat) Schedule
Featured Groups is back at it this week, as PGA Tour Live will feature the following groups over the first two days:
- Jon Rahm
- Webb Simpson
- Brooks Koepka
Si Woo Kim
- Rory McIlroy
There are rarely any weather problems at this time of the year in Arizona, which will hold true again here this week. It should be ideal scoring conditions every day, all day.
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Fantasy Golf Favorites for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
I am proud of myself … I only had 13% Jordan Spieth last week, and that’s what I’ll do again. Now, from a golf analytical perspective, every single driver that he missed was to the right. That is very important to the long-term success and viability in this game. It’s not here now, and it may not be here for a while, but once he learns how to eliminate one side of the golf course, then he can get back to making 40-footers. However, they would be for birdie this time instead of pars, bogeys or worse.
The reason why Spieth needs to do this and others do not is he has never had the ability off the tee that the elite players do. That is why he needs to play within his game, not everyone else’s. There is plenty of room for high-quality PGA Tour pros that don’t have an elite off-tee game to survive and thrive.
On to Will Gordon. Things seem to be trending in the right direction, with two straight weekend appearances, but he hasn’t put all four rounds together. Sure, he would have helped you cash and maybe win a smaller-field GPP, but he wasn’t in the optimal lineup. Maybe that’s asking a bit too much.
Lastly, I’ll probably have my normal allocation of 10% Brian Harman and 5% Brian Stuard.
PGA DFS Picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Total Player Pool: 54
Week-Long DFS Contests’
- $1 555 Signature hole
- 2 $200 Driver
- 200+ GPP lines
- 1 $444
- 100 GPP lineups
Rory McIlroy ($10,600/$11,700)
For my No. 1 lineup, it came down to McIlroy and Sungjae Im versus Hideki Matsuyama and Webb Simpson. Guessing by the golfer that’s listed here, you have probably figured out which way I went. Sure, McIlroy has never played here, and I hope people don’t play him for that reason. His driving right now is so good, and with the number of drivers off these tees, I love it for him here. I know he’s not winning right now, but this would not be a bad one to add to the resume.
Sungjae Im ($9,400/$10,800)
I kind of gave away what I was doing with this pick here, but Im is going to be low owned, and I’m ready to buy in here at these prices. Also, his first couple of trips out here to Scottsdale haven’t ended badly, with one top-15 and two made cuts.
Will Zalatoris ($9,000/$10,600)
While first projections had Zalatoris around 5%, the newest ones have him creeping toward 10%. I’m not sure why people aren’t ready to roster him; he has shown the goods time and time again, but that’s fine. I have no problem doing it. This will be his first time coming here, which doesn’t concern me. I’m OK paying more for a golfer if that means ownership is coming down.
Cameron Champ ($7,600/$9,400)
I have two excuses for Champ’s last two weeks. One, he caught an incredibly unfortunate break that led to a triple and an eventual missed cut. Then last week, after a solid opening round, he played in the absolute worst of the conditions on Friday and missed the cut again. This week nothing bad is going to happen in his round, and no bad weather is expected. If nothing else, price and ownership have come screaming down on DraftKings.
Wyndham Clark ($7,100/$8,700)
Momentum is real in this game, no matter the level, and Clark seems to have some positive mojo going. His irons have one bad round a week, which is keeping him from the first or second page of the leaderboard. But once that flips, he’ll be right there. I want to be on him for that.
Gambles of the week ($7,000 and Below)
Dylan Frittelli ($6,900/$8700)
The upside is there, and while Frittelli didn’t look great last week, he didn’t look bad either. And now he’s $400 cheaper than last week. Sign me up. His irons need to improve, though, before he starts contending again.
Aaron Wise ($7,100/$7,700)
I’m listing him here because I’m playing on FanDuel, where his equivalent DraftKings salary would be about $6,800, give or take a hundred in either direction. Taking advantage of price inefficiencies can be fruitful at times, especially when it’s with someone whose upside is as large as Wise’s. Just two starts ago he scored 143 points at the Mayakoba Classic, finishing second. Below $8,000 on FanDuel for that type of upside is hard to pass up, especially in a non-major.
Doc Redman ($6,600/$8,200)
I might be early here, but I feel like a course that has a 55% driving accuracy rate and low scoring should be Redman’s gold mine. He hits more fairways than most around while not giving up that much distance, and he is typically very good with his irons. He hasn’t had a good finish really since the Bermuda Championship, where he finished in a tie for fourth, and because of that, his price has dropped way down. I’ll see if I can be on the train first here.
Nick Hardy ($6,200/$7,000)
Hardy has come on strong in this last year, rising all the way to No. 365 in the world. His consistent play on the Korn Ferry Tour would have easily earned him a spot on the PGA Tour, coming in 15th for the season, but because of COVID, he’ll have to try again. But maybe he won’t need the Korn Ferry Tour after all, as the tie for 14th at the Sony Open gives him a chance at special temporary membership. Granted, he has a long way to go, but it’s a great start. A top-10 this week would go a long way to achieving the goal. This week he’s playing in the field via Monday qualifying.
Chalk Zone Key
This is how I’m allocating my shares to the expected chalk of the week. For this article, anyone projected over 10% for this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open will be considered Chalk. For the golfers above $9,000 I used 15% as the ownership basis.
O = Overweight
E = Equal Weight
U = Underweight
- Jon Rahm (E)
- Xander Schauffele (E)
- Justin Thomas (E)
- Daniel Berger (E)
- Harris English (U)
- Rickie Fowler (E)
- Billy Horschel (U)
- Gary Woodland (E to O)
- Si Woo Kim (E to O)
- Corey Conners (U)
- Sam Burns (E)
- Brendan Steele (U)
- Byeong Hun An (E)
- Matt Jones (U)
PGA DFS Fringe Players for DraftKings & FanDuel
* Likely to be in a higher-dollar lineup and 10-20% in GPPs.
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Scottie Scheffler
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Bubba Watson
- Russell Henley
- Max Homa
- Carlos Ortiz
- Sebastian Munoz
- Adam Long
- Sepp Straka
PGA DFS Alternates (5-15% GPPs)
- Brooks Koepka
- Matthew Wolff
- Talor Gooch
- Chris Kirk
- Henrik Norlander
- Brendon Todd
- Nick Taylor
- Kyle Stanley
- Tom Lewis
- Sam Ryder
PGA DFS Holes in One (1-5% GPPs)
- Ryan Armour
- Vincent Whaley
- Davis Riley
- Camilo Villegas
- Kevin Tway
- Robby Shelton
- Keith Mitchell
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